FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — Attack ads during every TV break. The campaign money is pouring in. And on a sunny Saturday, a crowd stretches out the door for a campaign rally at Tulip’s, a popular Fort Worth nightclub — this time for Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker who is trying to dethrone the Republican senator. Ted Cruz.
Texas is having another October.
With Democrats defending twice as many Senate seats as Republicans, Allred’s bid next month could be their best chance to flip a seat and maintain their slim majority in the Senate. Cruz is pleading with Republican supporters to take the challenge seriously, six years after his narrow victory over Beto O’Rourke revealed fault lines for Republicans after decades of dominance in Texas.
But Allred, who would become Texas’ first black senator, does things his own way. Seeking more than the moral victories Texas Democrats have settled for since 1994 — the last time they won statewide elections — Allred has run to the center and away from O’Rourke’s blueprint of storming and transgressing of the rules. The different look has frustrated some Democrats, but amid signs of a competitive race with less than a month to go, Allred is sticking to the script.
“Beto didn’t win, but he was successful,” said Ryan Armstrong, 21, who registered voters outside Tulip on a clipboard still adorned with a “Beto for Texas” sticker. “I have a lot of hope that Allred will win, but I honestly don’t know if he has done enough.”
Abortion rights and a trip to Cancun
Allred, a three-term congressman from Dallas, is a very different candidate by nature than O’Rourke, an electrifying orator who quickly jumped onto a table to incite a crowd and took a road trip through all 254 counties. Allred describes himself as someone who “keeps a cool head” and presents himself as a dual problem solver. To win with that understated approach, he will need the enthusiasm of Vice President Kamala Harris, who is at the top of the Democratic ticket, even as he stands apart from her in a state where former President Donald Trump is expected to easily win. win.
“Colin has to perform better than Harris, so that’s a little more sensitive for him than for us,” said David Wysong, a top adviser to O’Rourke during his 2018 match against Cruz.
Allred is boosting his moderate credentials by voicing support for prominent Republicans, including former U.S. Reps. Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney.
Other factors could also work in Allred’s favor. Most notable is the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to strike down constitutional protections for abortion, a ruling that paved the way for Texas to ban nearly all abortions. That has been a winning issue for Democrats ever since, even in red states like Kentucky and Kansas.
Allred has mentioned abortion rights in his campaign, highlighting the personal story of Kate Cox, a Texas woman who was forced to flee the state to have an abortion after doctors determined her fetus had a fatal condition that the state says Texas law does not provide any exceptions.
He also did not abandon Cruz’s family vacation to Mexico during a deadly winter storm that crippled the state’s power grid and will likely remind voters again when the candidates debate on Oct. 15.
Cruz goes on the attack
Cruz has since transformed from selling himself as an unapologetic partisan who showed little interest in governing when he arrived in Washington to a Republican who gets things done and holds the line against Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats. He remains just as combative, attacking Allred as a “radical leftist” and linking the congressman to immigration issues and transgender rights.
“Let me tell you, Chuck Schumer and the communists have their targets on Tarrant County,” Cruz told a packed room of supporters at Outpost 36, a barbecue restaurant in the Fort Worth suburb of Keller.
“They can’t have it,” he said, prompting cheers from people waving Cruz signs that read “Keep Texas Texas.”
Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and the fast-growing suburbs surrounding it, is the kind of place where Allred should make big gains. The races here have been close in recent cycles, with O’Rourke Cruz leading by less than 1 percentage point. 2018 and President Joe Biden won the county by a similar margin four years ago.
“Six years ago it was a real struggle, and this year it’s a real struggle,” Cruz said. “It’s not complicated. If you are a hardcore partisan Democrat, there is no one in the country after Donald Trump you want to beat more than me.”
And while O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate campaign may have provided something of a statewide roadmap for Democrats, he lost by more than 10 percentage points in his bid to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott two years ago.
Campaign spending exceeds $120 million in Texas
The amount of money spent by both parties indicates the national significance of the race.
According to AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, the $120 million each party is spending on the U.S. Senate race in Texas will exceed the roughly $40 million paid or earmarked for the Senate race in Florida, another top target for the Senate. Democrats. But it pales in comparison to races in Montana and Ohio, where total spending exceeds $700 million in races in which Democrats are defending seats in red-leaning states.
Some of Texas’ high spending is due to its size, with 20 separate television markets, including two of the nation’s largest and most expensive: Dallas and Houston.
“I think some of it also reflects the fact that Allred has been very successful in raising money, and he has spent a good chunk of it on TV advertising,” said Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University. “The National Democrats have not yet shown the same level of enthusiasm and optimism as the Allred campaign. Part of that may be that they are still trying to figure out the tricky issue of combining defense, which they are much more focused on, and attack.”
Allred: From NFL to Congress
Allred’s resume seems perfect for the Lone Star State. He was a star high school athlete from Dallas, playing linebacker and captaining the football team at Baylor University in Waco. After his NFL career, he worked as a civil rights attorney.
He also ousted a high-profile Republican after defeating Rep. Pete Sessions after spending more than two decades in Congress in 2018. That campaign drew much energy from O’Rourke’s attempt to dethrone Cruz, who defeated the former El Eloques. Paso congressman by less than 3 percentage points.
Still, running a successful statewide campaign comes with an increased level of difficulty, and Allred’s approach has some Democrats scratching their heads. In Laredo, for example, a fast-growing county along the U.S.-Mexico border, some Democrats are wondering where he has been.
“He has done absolutely nothing, nothing to appeal to our voters,” said Sylvia Bruni, chair of the Webb County Democratic Party. “As far as he’s concerned, we’re apparently not worth his time.”
Allred defends his strategy and says the political landscape has changed.
“I am a different candidate and this is a very different year,” he said. “We have several issues that have arisen since 2018.”
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Lozano reported from Houston. Leah Askarinam of the Decision Desk contributed from Washington.
