Tesla ( TSLA ) is poised to make third-quarter deliveries as soon as Wednesday, a result that could push the stock past the strong recent gains it’s already seen.
Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver about 461,000 electric vehicles worldwide in the third quarter, with annual delivery estimates reaching 1.79 million, according to Bloomberg. This figure would be a sequential improvement over the second quarter, when Tesla delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles; however, it would be lower than the 466,000 electric vehicles delivered a year ago.
Shares of Tesla have risen more than 20% in the past month, fueled by optimism about the upcoming robotaxi event on Oct. 10 and good news from China pointing to rising sales there.
A strong third-quarter delivery report would also allay fears of a “significantly lower” annual growth rate for vehicles, which Tesla warned about after the first quarter.
Wall Street analysts agree with the story of improving sales and in some cases have raised expectations.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised his delivery estimates and now expects to deliver 459,000 electric vehicles worldwide, with a full-year forecast of 1.75 million units. While Potter’s estimate is still slightly below consensus, Potter believes Tesla can report its best quarter ever in China.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects third-quarter deliveries to exceed 470,000 units, easily exceeding estimates. Levy and Barclays cite July data for global electric vehicle sales and sales in China, based on August registrations and production data.
“Our delivery estimate implies a volume increase of ~6% sequentially and an increase of ~8% [year over year] – which would be Tesla’s first quarterly result in 2024 with positive [year-over-year] growth,” Levy wrote in a note to customers. “We believe that a price increase could further strengthen the stock on Robotaxi Day, which could serve as a reminder that concerns about fundamentals have subsided for now.”
Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush predicts that not only will sales improve in the third quarter, but also that profitability may finally improve after a steep decline over the past year.
“Importantly, we believe price cuts are now largely in the rearview mirror and should take some overhang out of the Tesla story that has plagued the name over the past year,” Ives wrote in a note last week. “We believe gross margins should finally recover from these levels, with the third quarter being a big step forward.”
Interestingly, analysts are also starting to model Cybertruck sales, with production and sales data having started to rise.
Data from S&P Global Mobility shows that Tesla sold more than 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, the most recent month for which the company collected data, with sales of 17,722 to date.
Deutsche Bank predicts that the Cybertruck, which is only available in the US, will reach sales of 13,500 in the third quarter.
While that figure would only represent 3% of total sales, it is rising and could, at the margin, represent the difference between a sales hit or miss for Tesla’s total deliveries.
Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him Tweet and on Instagram.
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