Tesla (TSLA) reports second-quarter global vehicle deliveries on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the total to come in below the current consensus. However, with demand for electric vehicles waning in 2024 and AI fever dominating the market, some observers are more focused on Tesla’s second-quarter energy storage numbers. TSLA shares headed higher early Monday.
↑
X
If Tesla is the most valuable car company, why do hybrids sell more than electric vehicles?
Analysts forecast Monday that Tesla’s global deliveries will total 436,000 vehicles in the second quarter, according to FactSet. The consensus at the end of May was 448,000 deliveries. Since then it has fallen by 3%.
The current estimate would be 6.5% lower compared to last year’s 466,140 deliveries. But it would be an increase of 13% compared to the first quarter.
Tesla reached a record 484,507 deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company reported in early April that global deliveries in the first quarter totaled 386,810, undercutting even the lowest estimates and marking the lowest number of quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in the second quarter of 2022.
However, many analysts believe that Tesla deliveries will fall below 436,000. On Friday, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote that deliveries should approach that consensus number. He added that the “whisper figures” are between 415,000 and 420,000.
Last week, New Street said it expects Tesla to deliver 425,000 units in Q2. Meanwhile, RBC Capital cut its Tesla deliveries to 410,000 in Q2, down 23% from the company’s previous estimate of 533,000 vehicles.
Barclays also published a Q2 estimate of 415,000 units for Tesla last week. The firm said it believes this estimate is “somewhat in line with more muted buy-side expectations” and expects Tesla’s final consensus estimates to be lower.
Tesla’s Chinese rivals are increasing sales as cheaper new models are on the way
Tesla shares gained 1.7% in premarket action on Monday. On Friday, TSLA rose 0.2% to 197.88.
What about Tesla energy
In addition to global delivery figures, Tesla will also report on Tuesday how much energy storage it deployed in the second quarter. The company deployed 4,053 megawatt hours (MWh) in Q1, a record high.
Tesla currently offers solar panels and a solar roof, along with powerwalls for energy storage. On the commercial side, Tesla also offers the ‘megapack’.
Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s high-profile auto analyst, wrote last week that as generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) increases energy demand, Tesla’s energy business “could be uniquely positioned to benefit from investments in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”
Jonas currently values Tesla Energy at $36 per Tesla share, which equates to approximately $130 billion.
The analyst predicts that Tesla Energy will generate revenue of about $7 billion this year, up 20% from 2023. Jonas also predicts that Tesla Energy’s margins will exceed the company’s auto margins by 2024.
CEO Elon Musk said at Tesla’s June 13 shareholder meeting that the company is on track for 200%-300% annual growth in energy storage and office equipment deployment.
Looking ahead to autonomy and robotaxi
Ives said Friday that he is already targeting the second half of 2024 and that he looks forward to a recovery in demand, stabilization of vehicle prices and the unveiling of the “robotaxi” next month.
“We believe the August 8th Robotaxi Day will be a significant historical moment for the Tesla story that we see as a near-term catalyst,” Ives wrote.
“The tires are hitting the road as the Street expects August 8 to be a key pivot day for the Tesla story,” he added. “While next week’s delivery numbers are very important, the Street is starting to focus on the next growth engine at Tesla, which is now shaping up with the worst of the demand freeze behind us.”
Tesla stock performance
Last week, Tesla stock rose 8.1% to 197.88, breaking out from a buy point of 191.08, according to MarketSurge chart analysis. The buy range extends to 200.63.
The stock hit resistance at its 40-week line on Friday but closed higher. Shares gained more than 11% in June.
Tesla has risen since reporting its first-quarter earnings and revenue figures on April 23, finding support just above its 50-day moving average.
However, Tesla stock is still below its declining 200-day moving average.
Tesla shareholders recently voted in favor of the $56 billion salary package that Musk received in 2018 and in favor of the EV giant’s reinstatement in Texas, that is, from Delaware.
With the company’s annual meeting in the rearview mirror, analysts are eyeing Tesla’s second-quarter results in mid-July. The company will also unveil its robotaxi on August 8.
Tesla stock ranks sixth in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a Composite Rating of 56 out of a possible 99. The stock has a Relative Strength Rating of 26 and an EPS Rating of 62.
Follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE:
Is Tesla Stock a Buy or a Sell?
Get full access to IBD stock lists and ratings
Want to learn how to pick great stocks? Read Investor’s Corner
Is Rivian a buy now after it launched its new product line?
Dow Jones Futures Rise: Boeing, Biden, France In Focus; Tesla, Amazon In Buy Zones
