Texas (5-0, 1-0 SEC) has thoroughly dominated their early season schedule, dismissing the national champion Wolverines 31-12 while boasting an impeccable 38-point per-game winning differential. Their passing offense was nearly flawless, with the Quinn Ewers-Arch Manning tandem posting a 52% success rate (13th) while ranking 5th in EPA/dropback. The run game was efficient (4th in success rate), but lacks big play ability and ranks 94th in yards per successful rush. Defensively, the Longhorns’ secondary players were elite, ranking first in EPA/dropback and second in success rate. Their rush defense was decent but not exceptional, ranking 60th in success rate and 94th in chance rate.
Despite their record and #18 ranking, Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1 SEC) has struggled mightily at 130th in offensive position and 129th in plays of 20+ yards while the play of blue-chip QB Jackson Arnold completely collapsed when OU turned to dual-threat freshman QB Michael Hawkins. Unfortunately, the run game hasn’t helped offset their punchless passing offense, ranking a dismal 131st in rushing success rate and 110th in EPA/rush. Conversely, the defense ranks 10th in SP+ and has been arguably potent against the run, ranking 8th in rushing success rate and 12th in EPA/rush. However, the secondary is allowing 6.1 yards per dropback (65th) and is currently the 118th-rated defense in allowing explosive pass plays.
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Game details and how to watch Texas @ Oklahoma live
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Texas @ Oklahoma Game Odds – Week 6
The latest odds from Friday morning:
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Moneyline: Texas (-650), Oklahoma (+450)
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Spread: Texas -14.5
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Top/Bottom: 50.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
The early trading line of -8.5 was blown to smithereens and currently hovers between -14 and -15 depending on the book. The total opened at 51 points, while the industry average fell slightly to 50.5. Texas opened at -750 on the moneyline, which has since improved to -600 in some spots, while Oklahoma has risen from +525 to +475.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks it could be tough to get points:
“Oklahoma has struggled to move the ball effectively all season, starting a raw true freshman QB and facing a rock-solid Texas defense that ranks No. 1 nationally in yards per dropback. I back the Under 17.5 points for the Sooners.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
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Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200
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Travis Hunter +3500, +300
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Cam Ward +20000, +500
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Jalen Milroe +800, +1100
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Quinn Ewers +800, +2000
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Jaxson Dart +2000, +2200
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Nico Iamaleava +1100, +3500
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Bow Manning +10000, +15000
Highest ticket%
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Travis Hunter 16.9%
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Nico Iamaleava 10.4%
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Cam department 7.5%
Highest Handle%
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Travis Hunter 21.8%
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Cam department 9.7%
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Jalen Milroe 9.4%
Greatest liability
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Travis Hunter
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Nico Jamaleava
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Cam Ward
Quarterback matchup for Texas @ Oklahoma
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Texas: Quinn Ewers started the season as the established starter, albeit an injury-prone one. He orchestrated a pair of dominant wins against Colorado State and Michigan before winning Week 3 vs. UTSA suffered an injury, making way for star kid QB Arch Manning. Manning went on to throw four touchdowns in place of Ewers against the Roadrunners and entered the final two games with 900 passing yards, a 9-to-2 ratio and a sparkling 90.4 PFF offensive grade. Ewers is apparently healthy and set to start against the Sooners, but you have to wonder how long his leash will be with the specter of Arch Manning looming if he stumbles out of the gate.
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Oklahoma: 2023 QB Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon as OU was ready to kick off the Jackson Arnold era in Norman. Arnold threw four touchdowns against Temple Week 1 before surviving a bowling-shoe ugly 16-12 game against lowly Houston, where OU posted a 16% win expectancy. The final straw came when Arnold completed 7 of 16 passes for 54 yards and one interception against Tennessee, after which HC Brent Venables turned to freshman QB Michael Hawkins. He led the Sooners to victory in his first start against Auburn, throwing just 15 passes, completing 10 of them for 161 yards, while using his advanced athleticism to rush for 69 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries .
Betting trends and recent stats for Texas vs. Oklahoma
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OU receivers have produced 11.4 yards per reception so far, the lowest mark among SEC wideouts. All three of Oklahoma’s starting receivers on opening day have been in foul trouble and are in danger of missing the game due to injury.
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Oklahoma QBs have thrown for 848 yards through five games, with the worst 19 in FBS. Texas has allowed 122 passing yards per game this year, the second-best mark in FBS.
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Texas QB Quinn Ewers has completed 93% of his red zone passing attempts, which is No. 1 among P4 signal callers. Arch Manning has thrown for more than 20 yards on 6 of his 20 3rd down pass attempts, the highest 3rd down explosive play rate in FBS.
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Texas true freshman WR Ryan Wingo has been targeted five times in close & late situations, which ranks sixth among SEC receivers.
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