Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, Deputy Political Editor Adam Wollner previews tonight’s primaries in Texas. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explains what the polls are showing on how a guilty verdict in the Donald Trump trial could change the 2024 race.
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The battle for the future of the GOP is coming to Texas
By Adam Wolner
Texas today hosts a series of primaries that will settle intraparty feuds and shape the future of the Republican Party in a traditionally conservative stronghold.
If no candidate crossed the 50% threshold during the March primary, the top two voters would advance to the runoff, meaning dozens of elections will officially be held after tonight.
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Republican congressman faces backlash from the right: So far, every member of Congress who has filed for reelection this cycle has won their primary — with the exception of a Republican primary in Alabama, which pitted two incumbents against each other after redistricting. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales hopes to continue that streak in Texas’ 23rd District as he takes on pro-gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera, NBC News’ Alexandra Marquez reports.
Gonzales has faced attacks from the right and was condemned by the Republican party for voting for a new gun law in the wake of the 2022 Uvalde elementary school shooting, in his vast U.S.-Mexico border region, and for he favored the protection of the same law. – sex marriage.
Herrera has touted himself as a “gun rights advocate” and an ally of former President Donald Trump, who failed to endorse in the primaries. Gonzales’ allies have highlighted Herrera’s past comments, making light of veteran suicides and Nazi machine guns. Gonzales won 45% of the vote in March, while Herrera got 25%, but today’s contest is still expected to be close.
There are a few other congressional primary races worth watching. The race in Texas’ 12th District to replace Rep. Kay Granger has divided GOP loyalties, with Gov. Greg Abbott backing state Rep. Craig Goldman and the attorney general Ken Paxton in line behind business owner John O’Shea.
And in the 28th District, retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza are competing for the chance to face Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted this month on federal bribery and money laundering charges. The congressman has denied any wrongdoing.
Paxton’s revenge tour: Further down the ballot, Paxton’s main revenge tour will come to an end as he tries to eliminate Republican state lawmakers who voted to impeach him last year.
His main target is one of the most powerful Republicans in Texas: House Speaker Dade Phelan, who oversaw the impeachment of Paxton on corruption charges. The state House impeached Paxton, but the Senate declined to convict and remove him from office.
Phelan now faces a primary challenge from conservative activist David Covey, who has campaigned heavily on his support of Paxton and Trump. Covey received 46% of the vote in the March primary, compared to 43% for Phelan.
Phelan is one of eight Republican state House lawmakers forced into a runoff after nine of them lost their primaries two months ago. Many were also targeted by Paxton or Abbott for opposition to his school voucher program, NBC News’ Jane C. Timm reports.
In another notable example, former Trump campaign spokesperson Katrina Pierson is running against Republican state Rep. Justin Holland with the support of Abbott and Paxton.
Polls show that a guilty verdict for Trump would boost Biden. This is why that is not certain.
By Steve Kornacki
Hanging Trump’s trial in Manhattan was the fundamental question of what impact a verdict will have on the presidential race — if at all.
And national polls seem to point to a clear answer. Our own NBC News poll looked at this in February. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump led Joe Biden 47%-42%. But when voters were asked what they would do “if Donald Trump is found guilty and convicted of a crime this year,” Biden took the lead, 45%-43%.
More recently, a Yahoo News/YouGov survey last week found Trump and Biden tied at 45%. But when voters were asked how they would respond “if Trump is convicted of a crime in the hush money case,” Biden opened up a seven-point lead, 46%-39%.
And this month’s Marquette Law School survey divided respondents into two groups. One person was asked how they would vote “if Donald Trump is found guilty in his trial in New York.” Biden had a 43%-39% lead on that question. The other group, however, was asked what they would do “if Donald Trump is found not guilty at his trial in New York.” They sided with Trump 44%-38%.
So that settles that, right?
This is where an essential caveat comes into play: these findings are all rooted in a hypothetical scenario. Voters have been asked how they would react to a possible conviction or acquittal, but whether this is how they would actually process a verdict cannot be known until a verdict is reached.
After all, events do not take place in a vacuum. A statement from Trump would likely unleash a barrage of controversy and highly public posturing from all quarters. Absorbing all this could shape (or reshape) how voters feel about the verdict. And while a ruling would dominate news coverage, numerous other politically charged battles will also capture the public’s attention between now and November, potentially diluting the impact of this trial.
There is also some recent history to consider. The past nine years have been marked by periodic explosions of what was perceived as political toxicity involving Trump. Often these were accompanied by rapid declines in the polls, as we saw with the release of the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape in 2016 and the January 6 riots in 2021. In these and other cases, Trump’s numbers eventually returned to basic level.
Still, in a race as close as this one, even a small shift in the polls could be decisive. So if Trump is convicted, and if there is a small group of his supporters who leave his camp and ultimately don’t return, the impact could be seismic.
But that’s a lot of ‘ifs’.
Read more about the closing arguments in today’s Trump trial →
That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have any feedback – like it or not – please email us at politicsnieuwsbrief@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
