One more primetime game, one more major coaching decision, potentially changes everything.
The Cowboys, trailing by 10, got a 64-yard field goal from Brandon Aubrey to make it a one-score game with 4:16 to play in the third quarter. A head snap error by Texans defensive lineman Derek Barnett forced Dallas coach Mike McCarthy to make a decision. It seemed like he didn’t think twice about it.
Take the points off the board and get a new set of downs on the Houston 31.
But here’s the reality. Even if the drive had ended in a touchdown, it still would have been a one-score game. And it would have taken more time off the clock. Why not take the points, punt to the Texans and force them to do something on the next possession?
What would have been Houston’s mentality at that point? They had been beating the Cowboys all night, but led by only seven points. And they had just blown a 16-point second-half lead to the Lions the previous Sunday night. Could the Texans have been a little tight? Absolute. Had they failed to convert a first down, the Cowboys would have gotten the ball back, trailing by seven points.
Instead, the drive ended with a failed fourth down and two from the Cowboys to the Texans’ eight, and it remained a two-score game. It didn’t last long (thanks to a strip sack fumble from Barnett) and it was a three-score game, and it was basically over.
Yeah, it wouldn’t have been that big of a deal if the Cowboys had gotten seven after taking three off the board. But it still would have been a one-score game the next time Houston had the ball, with less time for the Cowboys to tie the game and win than if the Cowboys had kicked the field goal.
Analytics are important for football. But they must yield to the elusive reality of momentum — especially when they face a team that blew a seven-point lead against the Jets in Week 9 and a 16-point lead against the Lions in Week 10.
Field goal or touchdown, it would have been a one-score game. Why not make it a one-score game with the 64-yard field goal and see if Houston can avoid blowing it up again?
