OMAHA, Nebraska – Rep. Don Bacon is facing a Donald Trump paradox: He needs to run from the former president to win his battleground race, but he also needs Trump to work harder to compete here.
Like other centrist Republicans in competitive seats, Bacon wants to shake off Harris’ voters. But he faces a unique problem: Harris is spending millions to win that one electoral vote from Bacon’s district. Trump essentially hands it off and spends hardly any money. Nebraska now has the eighth-highest level of presidential election spending of any state, and more than 95 percent of that comes from Democrats, according to AdImpact.
“That’s probably the biggest hurdle for us. … That’s like a 10 or 20 mile per hour headwind,” Bacon said in an interview with POLITICO in Omaha.
Yet Bacon cannot align himself too closely with Trump. He believes the former president’s rhetoric is turning away his “Nebraska-nice” voters. He just needs Trump to better consolidate his Republican base, while Bacon is wary of Trump-wary Republicans, independents and Democratic voters.
Still, even as Bacon tries to keep his distance from Trump, he hasn’t been able to avoid him completely. In a town of about 3,000 people called Valley, an accountant told lawmakers his top priority was keeping Trump out of office. Bacon responded that he had endorsed Nikki Haley in the primaries (although he had never formally endorsed her). Days later, at a coffee meeting with leaders of the black community in Omaha, Bacon was asked whether he would commit to a peaceful transfer of power given Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
“I will support the will of the voters,” Bacon replied. He also spoke to the group about how Trump “campaigned against me two years ago” and pointed out that he faced a primary challenge this cycle from the Trump wing of the party.
Bacon defeated Sen. Tony Vargas by less than three points in 2022 and also had a narrow margin of victory in 2020, but Trump is even further behind Harris this year than his defeat of about six points four years ago. Bacon needs the presidential race to stay close enough, hoping all he has to do is climb out of a small electoral ditch instead of a six-foot hole. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday showed Harris with a 12-point lead in the district.
Bacon may have the hardest time with the Trump dynamic of any of his Republican colleagues in the House of Representatives due to the electoral vote factor, but he’s not the only Republican lawmaker struggling to appeal to Trump in territory won by Biden . It affects other seats that could potentially win a majority, such as those held by Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), one of the two remaining Republicans in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa).
Republican leaders seem to understand that Bacon is in a particularly difficult situation. Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) were in Nebraska for Bacon earlier this month, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) stopped by last week — figures who, unlike Trump, could help Republicans on without alienating independents.
Johnson said after an event with Bacon in Omaha that the House of Representatives’ “road to majority” runs through the state’s Second District. But Johnson sidestepped a POLITICO question about whether he had pushed Trump or the campaign to spend more money here, saying that Trump “understands how important Don Bacon is to us,” and that he has spoken to him directly about how crucial the race is.
“We are offering Don all the support we can. … I certainly did everything for him and all our colleagues because he is so important to us,” Johnson added.
It is not the first time that Bacon has had to deal with difficult dynamics within his own party.
Earlier this cycle, he faced a primary challenge from Dan Frei, who said he would try to join the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus if he made it to the House. The Republican Party in Sarpy County, which is a small part of Bacon’s district, also voted to censure him in Aprilaccusing him of “resorting to publicly derogatory rhetoric against fellow Republicans who challenge or disagree with it.”
Bacon acknowledged that there may still be some Republican voters who supported Frei in the primaries who ultimately won’t choose him — he said they were “drinking the Kool-Aid,” pointing to conservatives online who said he would be worse than Vargas. But he generally believes voters in his district favor a “right-wing Republican who can govern and get things done.”
‘They don’t like assholes. They don’t like swearing,” Bacon added.
State and local Republicans are also trying to focus on unifying November; the state party approved the state’s congressional schedule for the general election in August. And while Trump’s campaign may not be spending much in the district, his campaign and volunteers are involved in an effort on the ground to turn out voters who Republicans here believe will ultimately help Bacon.
“The Trump campaign has hundreds of volunteers recruiting right now. They hit thousands of doors. They don’t really spend their money [the second congressional district] in the TV ads they are trying to take it door to door,” said Sarpy County Republican Party Chairman Michael Tiedeman, predicting that “the presidential race will help Congressman Bacon.”
But only Harris is campaigning for the election in a serious way. According to AdImpact, Harris and Democrats have spent $4.4 million on presidential ads in the Omaha market since Labor Day, including future reservations. Trump and the Republicans spent only $162,000.
Democrats are increasingly confident in their ability to finally flip Bacon’s seat after years of near misses, including Bacon’s narrow victory in 2022. A series of recent polls in the Vargas-Bacon rematch show the Democrat has a slight lead – albeit nationally and state-wide. Republicans believe Bacon can still pull off a victory. A National Republican Congressional Committee memo released Monday singled out Bacon by name for knowing “how to win in tough presidential environments.”
The Democrats also think they have a serious advantage that they didn’t have in 2022: the enthusiasm of the blue dot. The district was known as Nebraska’s “blue dot” in recent elections, but a few began producing yard signs with the symbol over the summer and have quickly multiplied this fall in the Omaha area, symbolically for the increased Democratic excitement with Harris in the election. top of the card. Blue Dot Nebraska co-founder Jason Brown, one half of the couple behind the signs, said they are “cautiously optimistic” that enthusiasm will translate into a downturn for Vargas.
In the House race, Vargas criticizes Bacon on several national issues, including abortion, immigration and border security. He has another common argument that is more personal: Bacon has moved too far toward Trump and the party’s MAGA wing to fit in this swing district. Bacon said before Haley stopped that he would support Trump if he were the party’s nomineeand Trump endorsed Bacon last month. (Bacon, in a message on Xsaid he was “grateful” for his support — a comment Democrats immediately emphasized.)
“We hear all the time: they gave him a chance in 2022, but not anymore, because they see his true colors. If Donald Trump wins this election, they know Don Bacon won’t stand up to him at all,” Vargas said in an interview in downtown Omaha.
Bacon, however, has emphasized his place in the more centrist corner of the Republican Party as he tries to sway Washington-weary voters to back him regardless of how they vote at the top of the ticket. He regularly mentions his support for the bipartisan infrastructure bill — he was one of 13 Republicans in the House of Representatives who voted for it — and for funding for other projects he has secured for the district. He also uses his military background as an asset amid multiple international conflicts.
Speaking to the group of black community leaders in Omaha, Bacon spoke about his work on anti-lynching legislation, noting that he introduced a bill in the Senate identical to the one led by Kamala Harris and others.
And he’s betting that there are more Harris-Bacon voters than people might realize. He recently got a boost from a prominent Nebraskan in the Harris-Bacon tribe: Ann Ashford, a Democrat who challenged him in 2020 and the widow of the incumbent Bacon who was defeated in 2016, endorsed him against Vargas.
If Trump can keep his own race within about six points in the district — the same presidential margin as in 2020 — Bacon believes he has a “decent fighting chance” to regain his seat in the House of Representatives. Trump losing by 8 or more points makes that more difficult.
“This was going to be an uphill battle either way, but if Trump can become competitive, I think I’m in a good place,” Bacon said. “I think my opponent has a pair of aces in his hand. … And my goal is to draw the royal flush.”
