A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean will likely become a hurricane as it passes over Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico midweek, federal forecasters said Sunday.
Residents of Florida’s west coast and other Gulf Coast states should monitor developments and expect at least heavy rain later this week, the National Hurricane Center said in a series of updates and forecast discussions.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is located about 355 miles (555 kilometers) south of Kingston, Jamaica, the hurricane center said in a 7 p.m. update, and is moving northeast at 7 mph (11 km/h). Sustained winds of 55 km per hour have been recorded, the report said.
The Air Force’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, which uses fixed-wing Super Hercules aircraft, took a closer look Sunday, the hurricane center said in an afternoon forecast discussion.
“Their data indicates that the system has developed a closed center,” the report said, indicating that the storm is organizing.
Still, the upward movement of warm air and precipitation was not intense enough to call the disturbance a tropical depression, the hurricane center said. That would most likely happen overnight, it said.
Hurricane formation likely
Hurricane center forecasters said there was a 100% chance the disturbance would at least become a tropical depression and a 100% chance it would then strengthen during the week.
The wind speeds for a tropical depression are a maximum of 60 km/hour. At a speed of 63 km/h, it will become a tropical storm, which the hurricane center forecasts could happen early Tuesday.
The system is likely to organize into a hurricane early Tuesday afternoon, requiring sustained winds of at least 75 miles per hour, and will remain so as it reaches Cuba on Tuesday or Wednesday, the center said.
But its strengthening could pause as it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, which drier air would work against, the center said.
“The intrusion of dry air should halt the strengthening process and likely lead to some weakening,” the report said in an afternoon forecast discussion.
By the time it reaches the northern Gulf Coast, it could have weakened to a tropical storm, the center said, noting that there are uncertainties in the long-term forecasts.
If the system develops into a hurricane, it will be the 11th of the 2024 season in the Atlantic Ocean, Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said on X. Available names for the system include Rafael and Sara, according to the hurricane center .
Storm threats
In the meantime, the hurricane center said, hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands within 48 hours. Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning, which means wind speeds of 60 to 120 km per hour can be expected within 24 to 36 hours.
The northern storm was expected to move near Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, federal forecasters said. It could cause coastal flooding due to storm surge and heavy rainfall of up to 10 inches, they said.
High surf will also be possible in the western Caribbean through at least midweek, forecasters said.
Hot water as fuel
U.S. forecasters expect it to shift its north-northeastward motion to the northwest and enter the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatán Channel before heading toward the Gulf Coast later this week.
It’s still uncertain where potential Tropical Cyclone 18 will target once it moves into the Gulf, which has seen extreme average sea surface temperatures that peaked at around 88 degrees in August and remain warm around 75 degrees this month.
Experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say storms prefer sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees to develop into hurricanes.
Tropical cyclones are fueled by warm seawater, which stimulates the vertical movement of warm air, causing the storms to spin counterclockwise while spewing rain and wind.
“When the surface water is warm, the storm sucks heat energy from the water, much like a straw sucks in liquid,” according to a NOAA video on how tropical storms form.
Gulf water temperatures have consistently been a few degrees higher than average since the summer, according to data posted to X by Kim Wood, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona.
That could help explain the rapid development and intensity of some of the season’s storms, including Hurricane Milton in October, which went from storm to hurricane in 24 hours, according to NOAA.
“This explosive strengthening was fueled in part by record to near-record warmth across the Gulf of Mexico,” the report said.
The warmer-than-normal water is an indication of climate change and could help fuel more intense and rapidly developing storms, experts from NOAA and the Environmental Protection Agency said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
