Despite Monday morning’s rain and cloudy skies, forecasters are predicting a mostly dry — and warm — election day in metro Detroit, with record high temperatures and gusty winds daily.
“Hold on to your ballots,” joked meteorologist Steve Freitag. “It’s going to be windy.”
But no amount of rain could be good for turnout, according to experts.
In southeastern Michigan, the National Weather Service expects mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain, but the day should be dry with temperatures likely in the mid to high 70s and winds up to 40 mph.
Temperatures could reach a new daily record, surpassing the 2022 record of 74 degrees.
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It’s unclear whether that will be a factor in voting behavior, but a 2017 study, “When the Heat Is On: The Effect of Temperature on Voter Behavior in Presidential Elections,” suggested temperatures could have some effect on turnout.
The study looked at correlations between temperature and voting using data from the 1960 and 2016 presidential elections in each state. It showed that for every temperature increase of 1.8 degrees, turnout also increased by 0.14%.
The study also noted that heat could also influence voting behavior: more heat tends to agitate voters, making them angry with the incumbent party, while the “good weather effect” often leads to a “more favorable assessment of the government ‘.
Nationally, forecasters predict a mostly mild election day. Long lines, rain and snowstorms often deter voters from going to the polls, especially if they are not overly enthusiastic about a candidate or issue.
But even if rain falls in Michigan, some election experts say early and absentee voting will provide an umbrella for voter turnout, as nearly 44% of the state has already voted in the election.
The Secretary of State’s latest count shows that nearly 3.2 million Michiganders — nearly 2 million by absentee ballot and 1.2 million by early voting — of 7.2 million registered voters have cast ballots.
Contact Frank Witsil: 313-222-5022 or fwitsil@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: A dry Election Day in metro Detroit could be good for voter turnout
