HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — In southern Africa, where democracy remains relatively stable, long-ruling liberation parties have struggled to survive in the 2024 elections.
Power struggles involving military governments, attempted coups and armed conflict are common across Africa, but the southern region has been largely more stable and elections in some countries brought joy and hope for a better future.
But not so much for some long-ruling parties. The decades-old goodwill to free their countries from colonial rule seems to be giving way to frustration over economic problems and limited opportunities for the region’s youth.
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As voters grow younger and no longer have personal memories of colonialism that ended before they were born, South Africa’s liberation struggle-era parties either lost power or received a wake-up call in 2024.
For many young voters, the government’s performance is more important than the historic credentials from the liberation struggle era that these parties have relied on for decades to stay in power, resulting in ‘the shifting political tectonic plates that we’re seeing,’ says Nic Cheeseman, a political scientist. and professor at the University of Birmingham in England.
“Generational change is a major factor in the shifting political tectonic plates we are seeing. People want jobs and dignity – you can’t eat memories,” says Cheeseman, who researches African politics.
Botswana, a small country of about 2.5 million people with a history of democratic stability, delivered the biggest shock as its economy suffered from a global decline in demand for mined diamonds and youth unemployment rose.
Opposition supporters, dressed in blue and white, took to the streets to celebrate, as then-President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat before the counting of votes was over after elections in late October. The opposition landslide marked the end of 58 years in power for the Botswana Democratic Party, which had ruled the country since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966.
Months earlier, South African voters turned against the African National Congress, the party led by anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela in the 1990s. In May, the ANC lost its majority, forcing it to share power with the opposition.
The result put South Africa on an unfamiliar political path for the first time since the end of apartheid thirty years ago. The ANC has gradually lost support since the 2009 national elections and has also ceded political control of major cities due to widespread discontent over corruption, service delivery failures and economic struggles. However, the drop from 57.5% of support to 40% in May was the biggest loss yet.
In Namibia, the candidate of the long-ruling South West African People’s Organization (SWAPO) – 72-year-old Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah – made history by becoming the country’s first female president.
However, SWAPO won 51 seats in the parliamentary vote, narrowly passing the 49 needed to maintain its majority and narrowly avoid becoming once again a party for the liberation struggle that would be rejected in Southern Africa this year. This was SWAPO’s worst parliamentary performance since Namibia gained independence from South Africa’s apartheid government in 1990, signaling a possible shift in the country’s political landscape.
Many liberation governments have reason to worry, even if the consistency of democratic processes could be praised, says Nicole Beardsworth, a political researcher and lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.
“What we see in southern Africa is relative stability in terms of democratic norms, where citizens seem to believe that their votes matter and that they count. So this is a concern for the ruling parties,” Beardsworth said.
In Mozambique, the results that kept the ruling Frelimo party in power for almost half a century after October elections led to protests that resulted in the deaths of at least 100 people, according to Amnesty International.
Exiled opposition leader Venancio Mondlane has challenged the election results in court, taking advantage of growing discontent among young people in the country of 34 million inhabitants. He has also continued to call for protests ranging from street marches to road and border blockades and pot-banging.
A similar situation occurred in January on the Indian Ocean island of Comoros, where news that incumbent President Azali Assoumani would win a fourth term sparked violent unrest that left one person dead and others injured.
Cheeseman, the political researcher, said protests, including in countries where democracy is being thwarted, “reflect growing signs — from protests to online dissent — that public opinion is already turning.”
“Even citizens who have lost faith in democracy want a responsive and accountable government, and for their voices to be heard,” he said.
Elections have swept away ruling parties in several countries elsewhere in the region and on the economically troubled continent of more than 1.4 billion and home to the world’s youngest population.
The Indian Ocean island of Mauritius, one of Africa’s most stable democracies, saw an opposition coalition capture all contested parliamentary seats and oust the government led by Pravind Jugnauth, who was replaced by former Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam.
In West Africa, Senegal in March elected the previously little-known 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who became the continent’s youngest leader.
Faye defeated rivals, including a former prime minister backed by then-incumbent Macky Sall, just weeks after being released from prison to contest the election. And hopes for change remain high in a country where more than 60% of the population is under 25 and 90% work in informal jobs, after Faye’s PASTEF party won 130 of 165 seats.
Former President John Dramani Mahama returned to power in Ghana in early December, as voters expressed their anger over the policies of outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo. The National Democratic Congress of 65-year-old Mahama also won a majority in parliament.
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Mogomotsi Magome in Johannesburg and Monika Pronczuk in Dakar, Senegal, contributed to this report.
