A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worth a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Josh Downs’ 58.5 receiving yards per game are a lie
Downs ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game, but he gets a big fantasy boost with the Colts moving on from Joe Flacco. Downs ranks first in catches per game this season (9.0) and fourth in yards per route run with Flacco. He has also been fantasy’s WR5.
Downs is a real route runner and also a favorite at Receptieperception. He ranks 13th in ESPN’s Open Score despite returning from a high ankle sprain earlier this season. Indy receivers are about to see improved average accuracy and increased volume; the Colts have averaged 17 more passes in games Flacco has started this season. He faces a pass-funnel Vikings defense this week that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and 12 TD passes in the past four games. Downs missed Wednesday’s practice, but it was likely a rest day after his toe injury last week prevented him from playing.
I have Downs as a top-15 WR this week.
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Baker Mayfield’s 21 touchdown passes are a lie
Mayfield has been fantastic this season and he leads the league with four touchdown passes. But regression is coming, especially with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield’s TD rate of 7.4% is a hair off the league lead and well above his career mark of 4.9%. He undoubtedly benefits from throwing frequently in the 10, but he is also incredibly hot; Mayfield’s attempted just five more red zone passes than Matthew Stafford, who has 14 fewer TD passes. Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown on 68% of its red zone opportunities this season, which ranks third in the NFL.
Evans is likely out until at least Week 12, and Godwin is lost for the regular season, leaving Cade Otton as his top pass-catcher. Mayfield was able to overcome missing his star wideouts last week, but his next game in Kansas City is much tougher; the Buccaneers have the lowest implied team total this week (17.5 points) against a Chiefs defense with the third-highest pressure rate. Mayfield will destroy his career with plenty of touchdown passes this season, but his torrid pace will certainly slow down in the future.
Chris Olave’s WR46 ranking is a lie
Olave’s per-game fantasy score matches that of Quentin Johnston and Jalen Tolbert this season, but his fantasy arrow points upward. He saw 14 goals return from injury last week and led the league in WOPR against a second-tier Chargers team, who had never previously allowed a WR to record eight goals or 100 yards in any game this season . Olave saw a target percentage of 37% and a target percentage of 40.6% on the first read in his first match without Rashid Shaheed this season. Shaheed leaves the eighth-best air yards in the league, and New Orleans is extremely thin at WR with Bub Means and Cedric Wilson also injured.
Moreover, Derek Carr is expected back this week. He is a significant improvement over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who posted above-expected completion percentages in the third and 10th percentiles last week. The Saints have a healthy projected point total (26.5) against a Panthers defense, yielding an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes. Carolina also has low pressure in the league, and Carr is twice as likely to target Olave when not being pressed.
Olave is the WR46 so far this season, but this week he is my WR12.
Tyreek Hill’s WR42 rank is a lie
Hill has been a major disappointment in fantasy territory, but he’s ready to make good on his ADP down the road with Tua Tagovailoa back. Hill averaged 55.3 receiving yards with no touchdowns in eight games without Tagovailoa in Miami, but he averaged 107.3 receiving yards and scored 21 touchdowns in 32 games with him (h/t RotoViz). Hill has literally averaged twice as many fantasy points with Tagovailoa on the court.
Additionally, Hill has a Tagovailoa target share of 28% this season, while Jaylen Waddle has a paltry 15%. The Dolphins moved from Tagovailoa from last to nearly first in neutral pass percentage last week, and Miami’s offense would rank first in plays per game (68) and pass attempts per game (40!) in his three starts this season. Hill had to sit out Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury, but that was likely rested after he was able to play through it last week.
Miami’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive this season, even with Tagovailoa, but the volume is there for Hill to become a top-five fantasy WR down the road.
