A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worth a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Calvin Ridley’s WR36 ranking is a lie
Ridley has averaged 10.7 targets, 6.7 catches and 100.0 receiving yards while scoring two touchdowns in three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. He was fantasy’s WR5 in points per game during that span. Ridley is sporting a TPRR of 32%, a YPRR of 3.03, and a target of 41% on the first read since Hopkins left, which are WR1 numbers.
It’s a small example, but it’s also encouraging that Ridley kept production going after Will Levis returned last week. Additionally, Ridley has the third-easiest remaining schedule among wide receivers after having the toughest in the league thus far.
Ridley’s impressive numbers will take a bit of a dip, and this is still an offense with an implied league total of 17.5 points this week (when Levis might struggle against Minnesota’s blitzing). But Ridley’s usage with Hopkins gone is undeniable, and he suddenly looks like a top-20 WR (even with some duds sprinkled in).
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Justin Herbert’s QB21 rank is a lie
Herbert was fantasy’s QB21 in points per game, but over the past four weeks he has been the QB9. He’s hitting a career-high 7.8 YPA with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, but volume has been an issue for his fantasy production. The Chargers rank 25th in pass plays per game. Los Angeles has allowed just 13.1 points per game, which would be top 15 in NFL history if the season were to end. The Chargers’ red zone defense (38.9%) will likely regress.
Additionally, LA’s favorable schedule is full of low projected totals, but the Chargers’ upcoming games should feature many more shootouts. Herbert had the 10th-hardest QB fantasy schedule so far, but he has the sixth-easiest rest of the season. The Chargers are one of only nine teams with a higher-than-expected strikeout rate over the past month, as Los Angeles has definitely thrown more since the bye period. Herbert has also been walking more since LA’s farewell, which may be a sign that his foot is feeling better.
Several upcoming game scripts will see Herbert’s stellar performance translate more into fantasy production. His season rankings are very misleading.
Chase Brown’s RB26 rank is a lie
Brown played a career-high 89% of snaps last week when he saw all 24 RB opportunities. Newcomer Khalil Herbert played two snaps and botched a handoff, resulting in a fumble, which led to a Leonard Fournette practice on Monday. Brown had a season-high 75% route participation and saw a career-high 11 targets. He has seen 100% of the Bengals’ RB touches over the past two weeks, including a whopping nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line. With Zack Moss out for the season, Brown has Cincinnati’s backfield to himself.
Brown has been fantasy’s RB3 since Moss went down, despite a game in Baltimore last week against a Ravens defense that allowed just 56.8 RB rushing yards per game. Joe Burrow has looked fantastic, so Brown is in a great situation. He’ll have a tough road matchup against the Chargers this week and a bye after that, but Brown should be treated like a top-12 prospect this stretch.
Jauan Jennings’ 32 catches are a lie
Jennings ranks 50th among pass catchers in receptions this season, but his volume will continue to increase with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season. Jennings led San Francisco in routes run, targets, catches, air yards and receiving yards in his first game without Aiyuk last week. He had the sixth-highest first-read target share in the league last week (38.5%), and Brock Purdy has the fourth-best Passer Rating in the league (134.5) when targeting Jennings. He ranks second in the NFL in yards per route run, eighth in fantasy points per route run and 10th among 117 pass catchers in ESPN’s receiving rating.
Jennings owns a 32% TPRR while Aiyuk is off the field, and he has now replaced BA as the 49ers’ “X” receiver. Jennings scored the most fantasy points by a wide receiver this season in Week 3 with Deebo Samuel Sr. out – the only other game in which he appeared as SF’s WR2. Jennings is no Terrell Owens 2.0, but he can clearly play; he will now see a much higher chance of a high-powered offense due to a major regression in the red zone.
The 49ers offense looks busy with Christian McCaffrey’s back, but Samuel Sr. has been slowed by multiple injuries and George Kittle is dealing with hamstring irritation. Jennings’ string of results suddenly includes him being a top-12 WR.
