A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worth a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Jakobi Meyers’ WR27 ranking is a lie
Meyers has beaten his ADP as the WR27 in fantasy points per game this season, but his usage gives him the upside to be a top-12 WR down the road. He owns a 40% stake in Air Yards and has averaged 9.9 targets since trading Davante Adams, which would rank fourth this season – behind only Malik Nabers (11.6), Cooper Kupp ( 10.4) and CeeDee Lamb (10.3). Brock Bowers has quickly emerged as the league’s best tight end, but the Las Vegas offense has become extremely condensed.
A lack of touchdowns has hurt Meyers’ fantasy value, but he has a 38% target share in the end zone without Adams and a previously tough WR schedule is about to become much more favorable. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs over the past five games, and Meyers’ TPRR (27%) and YPRR (2.63) both spike when his QB has been broken this season; Tampa Bay leads the league in blitzes. Aidan O’Connell threw for 340 yards (9.7 YPA) in Kansas City last week (while targeting Meyers 11 times), so there is hope for the Raiders’ passing attack.
Meyers is a highly underrated receiver who could win fantasy leagues this year.
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Calvin Ridley’s WR40 ranking is a lie
Ridley averaged 6.4 fantasy points (WR71) in six games with DeAndre Hopkins this season, but he has averaged 12.9 (WR13) over six games since DHop was traded (h/t FTN). Ridley leads the NFL in air yards (776) and has averaged 8.5 targets and 82.7 receiving yards in that span, but modest touchdown production has prevented a fantasy explosion. More red zone looks would help, but teammate Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is on an epic TD run and is crying out for regression. Ridley has also had some bad luck as several big plays have been negated by penalties (or bad throws).
Will Levis has put up 8.3 YPA while averaging 240.0 passing yards and 1.8 TDs over four games since returning from injury, so Tennessee’s passing attack can support a big finish from Ridley. A very favorable preliminary schedule should also help, starting this week in a revenge game against the league’s worst pass defense. Ridley’s fantasy rank remains misleading, as he could eventually become a top-10 WR.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s eight touchdown catches are a lie
Westbrook-Ikhine suddenly ranks fourth in the league in touchdown catches this season, but he ranks 129th in receptions (among all pass catchers). He also ranks last in catches (20) among the 929 separate instances in which a player recorded eight touchdowns in an eight-game span over the past 35 years. Westbrook-Ikhine has averaged a TD every 2.5 catches, while the NFL average is 12.7. He has been seen one goal in the red zone for the past month! And no one inside the 10. Westbrook-Ikhine is the WR96 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of Mack Hollins.
NWI’s role has improved since he entered the starting lineup (18% target share), and the Titans’ WR schedule looks very favorable for the rest of the season. Few players in history have been a clearer regression candidate than Westbrook-Ikhine.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s box score last week was a lie
Thomas Jr. was the WR13 last week, but he should have had a Jerry Jeudy-type blowout. Thomas Jr. was open for a potential 77-yard touchdown in the second quarter, but Trevor Lawrence instead threw him under for an interception. Mac Jones then missed a wide-open BTJ for a 69-yard touchdown on the opening drive of the second half.
Thomas Jr. also had another nearly 24-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter (although he would score later on that drive). The rookie led the league in air yards (210), but an NFL-high of 190 of those was not achieved. Thomas Jr. goes for 250 yards and four touchdowns in an alternate universe last week. BTJ (and his fantasy managers) deserved better.
