A simple glance at a scoreboard or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story about how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.
Yes… the numbers lie.
Tank Dell’s 37 receiving yards are a lie
Dell has nearly as many rushing yards (35) as he has receiving through two weeks, but he’s a candidate to target in trades. Dell easily could have had a 67-yard touchdown last week, and he’s run routes on 66 of 77 C.J. Stroud dropbacks (and has taken off on some run plays). That 86% rate is tied with Nico Collins’ 88%; the Texans have used 11 personnel 79% of the time this season with the addition of Stefon Diggs.
Houston will likely be more inclined to pass now that Joe Mixon is injured, and Dell scored more fantasy points than Collins when they were both healthy and on the court together last season. Spike weeks are coming.
Chris Olave’s Eight Goals Are a Lie
Olave has somehow only seen one target in the red zone, despite New Orleans scoring 91 points through the first two weeks of the season. Crooked (and long) scoring and an incredibly efficient running game have contributed to Olave’s slow start, but the Saints’ suddenly explosive new offense is great news for him going forward. Olave saw a 43% target share in Week 2, when he was tackled at the one-yard line. He has the third-best separation average of the year. The Saints have used 2-WR sets a league-high 90% of the time, while leading the NFL in play action and fantasy points per route run.
New Orleans’ strong start doesn’t seem like a fluke. Klint Kubiak’s dramatic increase in movement and play-action is clearly to the advantage of Derek Carr, who isn’t looking downfield like he usually does. Rashid Shaheed is breaking out to score all-WR fantasy points, but it’s on a modest nine targets. Carr has attempted just 39 passes this season, the fewest of any healthy quarterback. That volume will increase soon as Saints games become more competitive.
It’s strange to achieve such a poor record, but Olave’s fantasy arrow points upwards.
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Aiyuk has gotten off to a slow start, with one touchdown in the end zone in Week 1 and the fourth-lowest average separation. He has a top-30 ADP in Yahoo drafts but is the 61st WR through the first two weeks of the season. Aiyuk didn’t sign his new contract until Aug. 30 after missing practice all summer, which explains the slow start. Aiyuk’s snap rate jumped from 60% in Week 1 to 87% last week, so he’s nearing full strength.
Aiyuk is a tremendous receiver who just posted the most yards in NFL history on fewer than 110 targets last season. Aiyuk ranks second in the league in end-zone targets (three), and he should have scored a touchdown last week; Brock Purdy missed him a few times while seeing the most pressure of his career.
Aiyuk now gets a very favorable matchup against the Rams without Deebo Samuel or Christian McCaffrey. George Kittle has traditionally benefited even more with Samuel off the field, but Aiyuk has also made a big jump in YPRR and TPRR. Purdy averages the third-highest depth of target average (with a strong completion percentage) and is on the verge of touchdown regression.
Aiyuk should be considered a top 10 WR now that Samuel is sidelined.
Pickens had a 41-yard catch that was overturned and another 36-yard reception that was neutralized by a penalty in Week 1. He then had a 51-yard catch that was voided by a penalty, a touchdown that was called back, and a 37-yard DPI in Week 2. Pickens has impressed, ranking second in average separation score despite being shadowed by AJ Terrell and Patrick Surtain on 75% of his routes. Pickens also ranks second in air yards share (53.8%), so big games are coming once the misfortune stops.
Pittsburgh wants to win on defense and the run, but not all Steelers game scenarios will be so favorable; Justin Fields has averaged just 21.5 pass attempts through the first two games. Be patient with Pickens.
Amari Cooper’s 2.6 fantasy points per game are a lie
Cooper was the WR85 to open the season, but he’s the WR19 in expected fantasy points. He’s in the top 15 in targets and top five in air yards, and leads the league in routes run and unrealized air yards. Cooper dropped a sure touchdown of 36 yards in Week 1, when he recorded 16 yards on 170 air yards.
Cooper (and Deshaun Watson) again gave up a ton of yards in Week 2 and has the most drops in the league. Still, Cooper has 13 more targets than any other Cleveland pass catcher. David Njoku is out with a high ankle sprain and Jerry Jeudy/Elijah Moore haven’t played their best.
The Browns are one of five teams with a positive pass rate that exceeds expectations this year. They also have an easier schedule against the pass, so keep Cooper in fantasy lineups despite the Watson issue.
There is also a future where Jameis Winston will attack him.
