A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story about how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worth a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Matthew Stafford’s QB25 rank is a lie
Stafford has averaged nearly as many fantasy points (14.3) this season as Daniel Jones (14.2), who may have been moved to QB4 on New York’s depth chart. But Stafford’s fantasy rankings are misleading, as he is a weekly top 12 QB when the Rams are healthy.
Stafford has averaged 296.4 passing yards, 2.2 touchdowns and 19.0 fantasy points (~QB7) this season in games with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua; he’s averaging 215.0 passing yards, 0.4 TDs and 8.9 fantasy points (~QB40) without them (h/t FTN). And Nacua was kicked out of one of those games early.
Stafford is also due for touchdown regression. He ranks sixth in red zone passes and leads the league in end zone targets (33), but is tied for 12th in TD passes. Stafford is the QB13 in expected fantasy points despite being the only quarterback in the league without a single struggle. The Rams have the fourth-highest neutral pass percentage over the past month and are passing on 63% of their red zone plays since Kupp and Nacua returned.
Unfortunately, tough matchups will continue to be a hurdle. After having the fifth-toughest QB schedule in the league thus far, LA has the sixth-toughest remainder of the season. The Rams will have a particularly tough matchup this week against an Eagles defense that has led the NFL in EPA/play over the past six weeks while shutting down opposing passing attacks.
Still, Stafford looks like a top-12 QB if Kupp and Nacua can stay healthy.
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Jonathan Taylor’s RB15 ranking is a lie
Taylor has averaged 10.3 (half PPR) fantasy points (RB30) in two games with Joe Flacco this season, but he is averaging 15.7 fpg (RB8) while scoring all five of his touchdowns in six games with Anthony Richardson . AR made a triumphant return last week and will remain Indianapolis’ starter for the remainder of the season, health permitting. Taylor has handled 100% of the Colts’ RB rush attempts in three of the last four games, and he’s on the verge of a touchdown regression; Taylor has the third-most carries (13) inside the 5-yard line (despite missing three games), but he is tied for 15th in rushing scores.
Taylor will have a tough matchup this week against a Lions defense that ranks second in EPA/play, but his schedule will ease up after that. Indy’s offense has seen a lot more success (especially rushing and early downs) with Richardson starting this season, so Taylor will benefit from the return to the young quarterback.
Ladd McConkey’s WR29 ranking is a lie
McConkey ranks No. 11 out of 120 pass catchers in ESPN’s Receiver Score, and he is 13th in the league in first downs per route. The Chargers have posted a positive DBOE in four of the six games since their bye, and Justin Herbert is playing fantastic. While Joshua Palmer has failed to take a step further, McConkey saw a career-high nine goals last week and was among the league leaders in air yards. He’ll have an excellent matchup this week against the league’s best pass-funnel defense; the Ravens rank 28th in EPA/dropback, but second in EPA/rush.
After matchups full of low-scoring games and the league’s fourth-toughest WR schedule, the Chargers will play countless shootouts and have the sixth-easiest WR schedule going forward. More targets in the red zone would be preferable, but McConkey is legit, and more volume will lead to greater fantasy production down the road.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s WR35 rank is a lie
Harrison Jr. hasn’t been a failure, but he has been a disappointment while averaging fewer fantasy points than Quentin Johnston. Harrison Jr. finally started running more crossing routes before Arizona’s bye, and hopefully MHJ gets the proverbial rookie bump coming out of it. Harrison Jr. ranks seventh in air yard share (41.1%) and eighth in end zone targets – tied with Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.
Harrison Jr. has faced the league’s fifth-toughest WR schedule so far (its QB has had the toughest), but the rookie wideout is getting the fourth-easiest on the way up. Harrison Jr. has scored the second-most fantasy points per route against the press this season, and he has four remaining games against defenses that use that coverage heavily (including this week against the Seahawks).
Kyler Murray posted 9.1 YPA over his last three games before Arizona said goodbye to three top pass defenses, so the Cardinals’ offense was able to score some points later. Harrison Jr.’s role should continue to rise, just like his fantasy rank.
