A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worth a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s four touchdown catches. its a lie
Harrison Jr. ranks 59th in receptions and 38th in red zone targets, but is tied for the second-most touchdown catches in the league. He has fewer receptions than Michael Wilson and is incredibly dependent on touchdowns, with 35% of his fantasy scoring coming from TDs. The rookie has put to rest any concerns about his speed, but his role has been shaky in an Arizona offense that has taken a step back this season. Harrison Jr. is one of only two receivers to have seen more than 30% of their targets disappear or vanish.
Harrison Jr.’s air yards share of 42.2% looks nice, but it comes with an achievable target of 60%, which ranks 74th in the league. He ranks among the league leaders in unrealized air yards while recording the second-most contested catches. Among pass catchers with at least 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranked 39th in designed target percentage (5.9%). MHJ isn’t seeing any layup targets and hasn’t caught more than five balls in a game.
Harrison Jr. has averaged 8.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) when not facing the worst passing defense in the league (the Rams allow 9.0 YPA!), which would make him the WR46 of the year. Plus, MHJ will likely be overshadowed this week by Jaire Alexander (who returned to practice on Wednesday), and after that he won’t face a defense that currently ranks outside the top 10 in WR fantasy scoring allowed until Week 13!
Kyler Murray is averaging just 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a disaster off its opening drives; Murray has put up 10.0 YPA with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his only rushing score) on attempts 1-10 this season, but that drops to a 5.3 YPA with a TD:INT ratio of 1:2 after the scripted plays (tries 11+).
Harrison Jr. will see some action, but the early touchdowns (and a matchup against the Rams) have masked a discouraging role in a disappointing offense. Trey McBride has yet to break out this year and Wilson is on the rise. Harrison Jr. will cement himself as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver, but his expectations need to be lowered (he’s closer to Brian Thomas Jr. than a healthy Malik Nabers).
Garrett Wilson’s big game last week was a lie
Wilson easily had his best game of the season last week, with 13 catches for 101 yards and a score. But it took 23 goals, which is the fifth most since the statistic was recorded in 1992. Wilson’s route map was absolutely atrocious on Sunday, and the Jets faced a Vikings defense that came in, allowing by far the highest success rate and most passing yards. in the competition. It was Wilson’s first weekly finish among the top 10 WRs since his rookie season.
New York has scored the same number of points in five games as last season, when Zach Wilson had a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers currently has. Garrett Wilson’s average target depth (8.1 yards) ranks 43rd in the league, and 70% of his targets are behind the line of scrimmage or inside nine yards. He ranks first in goals this season with 56, but only 22 of them have been catchable. His yards per target (5.2) are sixth-worst in the league.
While it’s unclear how a change in head coach will fix the offense, Nate Hackett was at least stripped of his play-calling duties. The chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson is also sure to improve, but Wilson could soon be competing with Davante Adams for targets as well. Wilson faces a stingy Buffalo pass defense this week, followed by shadow matches with Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. Just like Harrison Jr. Wilson is playing a disappointing role in an underperforming offense, so he’s unlikely to be worth his lofty ADP despite last week’s misleading performance.
D’Andre Swift’s two touchdowns are a lie
The window to buy low in a trade has slammed shut after the top three RB finished each of the last two weeks, but Swift’s seasonal fantasy production remains misleading thanks to a slow start and unfortunate TD production. Swift was tackled three times at the one-yard line last week (and later failed to score on that drive), when he also had a touchdown run that was negated by an illegal shift penalty. Swift had seven carries inside the 10 last week, but saw Roschon Johnson steal two short scores.
Swift’s usage has been the same over the past two weeks, but his production has skyrocketed even with the unfortunate score. A very favorable schedule helped, but Swift looked good and more comfortable in a new offense in Chicago. Most importantly, Caleb Williams has shown real growth.
Swift alternates goal-line chances with Johnson, but Khalil Herbert has been put on hold. Swift is the RB13 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Additionally, the Bears have the second-easiest projected RB schedule over the next five games.
Swift was also stopped in second place in the league last year (six), but his fortunes should take a turn for the worse on the goal line. More touchdowns are coming, so Swift qualifies as a buy-high in fantasy trades.
Trey McBride’s TE10 rankings are a lie
McBride was knocked out of one game and missed another due to a concussion. He has hit a target share of over 29% in three of four games this season and has the easiest remaining tight end schedule. He’s about three times as open as Sam LaPorta while running a similar number of routes. McBride dropped a potential touchdown in the end zone last week and he leads all tight ends in first-read target percentage (25.9%).
McBride has a better separation rate and higher designed target rate (13.3% vs. 5.9%) than Marvin Harrison Jr., who runs a ton of go and fade routes. McBride will benefit from Harrison’s limited route role, and last season as a sophomore he led all tight ends in first downs per route. Travis Kelce without Rashee Rice and the rising Brock Bowers have arguments, but McBride is behind them as the top fantasy side moving forward.
