A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story about how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worth a closer look.
Yes… The numbers lie.
DeAndre Hopkins’ WR57 ranking is a lie
Hopkins is still tied with Jerry Jeudy in fantasy points per game even after his blowout last week, thanks to being stuck in Tennessee’s offense for most of the season. Hopkins’ underlying stats last season suggested he was far from done, and he is now Patrick Mahomes’ WR1 in an Andy Reid offense.
Hopkins has hit a target of 25% per route and has gained 2.40 yards per route while getting to know Kansas City’s offense immediately in two games since joining the Chiefs. Since 2018, he has already recorded the most receptions in a game by a KC wide receiver lined up outside. DHop’s route tree has grown in Kansas City, including the crucial routes in the middle. Rashee Rice is out for the season and the eventual return of JuJu Smith-Schuster is not a threat.
Hopkins has a tough matchup this week when he lines up against Patrick Surtain II on the outside, but the 32-year-old suddenly has a chance to become a legitimate top-12 fantasy wide receiver down the road.
Deebo Samuel Sr.’s WR33 rank is a lie
Samuel Sr. has been a disappointment to fantasy managers, but he’s primed for a big second half if health cooperates. Samuel had received 4.88 YPRR immediately Target share of 38% with Brandon Aiyuk out of the field since 2021 before leaving the Dallas game early with a rib injury (he had seven goals). Those numbers aren’t sustainable, but they are staggering and suggest he could be a fantasy WR1.
Samuel was limited during Wednesday’s practice, but he says the 49ers are “all hands on deck” coming out of the bye. Samuel faces a TD regression playing in an offense that ranks fifth in red zone TD percentage after leading the league last year and now gets CMC back. He’s also looking for more volume with Aiyuk out this season.
Samuel’s fantasy value is on the rise.
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Trey McBride’s zero touchdown catches are a lie
McBride leads all pass catchers with the most targets (60) without recording a receiving touchdown this season. He did score a rushing TD last week when he was also tackled inside the three-yard line, and Kyler Murray missed him wide open in the end zone on another play.
Arizona attempted only 20 passes thanks to the game script, and the Cardinals’ offense has looked much better over the past two weeks while Marvin Harrison Jr.’s route tree. was expanded. McBride was the TE3 in fantasy points per game despite not recording a receiving touchdown, and TD regression is coming. McBride will have a tougher matchup against the Jets this week before Arizona’s bye, but his schedule looks very favorable down the road.
Aaron Jones’ two touchdown runs are a lie
Jones dominates Minnesota’s backfield work, but he continues to suffer from bad luck with rushing scores. Jones has the seventh-most expected rushing touchdowns, but is just 30th in TD runs this season. The Vikings have the seventh-best TD percentage in the red zone (64%), but Jones is just 1-for-7 on carries inside the five-yard line. Last year he converted 50% of those attempts.
Minnesota is averaging 26.1 points per game, and Jones will get a favorable matchup this week. Jacksonville has allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the past five games and the fifth-most rushing TDs (11) this season. The Vikings have the third-highest implied team total (26.5 points) and should be favored in a positive game script. Jones’ TD regression begins Sunday.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s RB37 rank is a lie
Tracy Jr.’s fantasy points per game this season puts him between Zack Moss and Raheem Mostert, but he’s rocking the top-15 RB now that he’s fully taken over as New York’s leading back. Tracy Jr. played a strong role in three games since Devin Singletary returned, and that role is growing by the week. Tracy Jr. has averaged 82.6 rushing yards and 5.2 YPC over five games as a starter, and he can contribute more in the passing game (he played wide receiver in college).
The Giants have gone run-heavy over the past two games, and they get a Carolina defense this week that is giving up by far the most fantasy points for running backs. The Panthers have also yielded the most rushing yards (132.9) and total touchdowns (15) to RBs this year. The Giants are near-touchdown favorites in Germany on Sunday, so Tracy Jr. has a delightful match. New York then gets three consecutive defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in RB fantasy points allowed after his bye.
Tracy Jr.’s fantasy rank will end up a lot higher than now.
