France’s political future was uncertain on Thursday. The far right rose in the polls, but other forces fought to the end, three days before a key parliamentary vote.
Depending on the outcome, President Emmanuel Macron could find himself in a tense “society” with a prime minister from an opposition party, or with a chamber that fails for at least a year to form a stable majority to govern the EU’s second-largest economy and largest military power.
Surveys show that voters will give Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) more than 35 percent in Sunday’s first round, with a left-wing alliance up to 29 and Macron’s centrists in the dust at around 20 percent.
When he called the midterm poll after a mishandling of the June 9 European elections by the RN, Macron had hoped to offer voters a stark choice on whether to hand France over to the far right.
But the lightning-fast three-week campaign “would not be able to reverse the major trends,” Brice Teinturier, deputy director of pollster Ipsos, told Le Monde newspaper, adding that the “RN bloc is incredibly powerful.”
Even France’s seasoned pollsters are struggling to translate that basic level of support into an end result as the July 7 runoff runoff — which many expected to be a three-way battle — will see voters test their loyalty and new alliances can see change from laziness. form.
A higher than normal turnout could also change the mood.
About two-thirds of eligible voters plan to cast their ballots, which would be the highest level since 1997.
On Thursday, polling firm Harris Interactive Toluna predicted 250 to 305 of the 577 seats for the RN – giving it an outright majority – while Ifop-Fiducial suggested the party could reach 260.
Le Pen was already making plans for an absolute majority and a RN government leader. He told the daily Telegramme that the president’s title as commander-in-chief of the armed forces was “an honorary title, because it is the prime minister who calls the shots.”
“That is why the president will not be able to send troops to Ukraine,” she added, undercutting his warning to Moscow that France would keep all options open to thwart a Russian invasion of its neighbor.
Her candidate for prime minister, Jordan Bardella, has already pledged not to send long-range missiles and other weapons to Kiev that could strike Russian territory, in a reversal of Macron’s policy.
The RN has also said it will not agree to form a government without an absolute majority, leaving open the possibility that no political force can keep a prime minister in place.
– Last gasp –
Hoping to defy the odds, current incumbent Gabriel Attal – named months ago by Macron as France’s youngest-ever prime minister – will face RN frontman Bardella and Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure in a TV debate on Thursday evening.
It is one of the last chances to convince voters, as the campaign will be officially suspended on Saturday and during the voting on Sunday.
Candidates had failed to deliver a decisive blow during an earlier broadcast on Tuesday.
Attal delivered his message during Wednesday’s lightning-fast three-week campaign in central France, asking voters to reject an RN that “stigmatizes” parts of the population and a left-wing alliance that he says panders to sectarianism.
Bardella could try to clarify some of his plans for voters’ pockets, after struggling to explain how to reverse Macron’s unpopular increase in the retirement age or shape a policy to free the under-30s assessment of income tax.
He was forced to say on Wednesday that “of course there would be a cap” on the income tax exemption after being challenged over whether French star striker Kylian Mbappe’s multi-million salary would go untaxed.
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