PARIS (AP) — French voters around the world cast ballots Sunday in the first round of an extraordinary parliamentary election that could put the French government in the hands of nationalist, far-right forces for the first time since the Nazi era.
The outcome of the two rounds of elections, which end on July 7, could have implications for European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine and the way France’s nuclear arsenal and global military power are managed.
Many French voters are frustrated with inflation and economic concerns, as well as with the president Emmanuel Macron‘s leadership, which they view as arrogant and out of touch with their lives. Marine Le PenThe anti-immigration National Rally party has tapped into and stoked that discontent, particularly through online platforms like TikTok, and has dominated all opinion polls leading up to the election.
A new coalition on the left, the New Popular Front, is also posing a challenge to the pro-business Macron and his centrist alliance Together for the Republic.
After a blitz campaign marked by mounting hate speech, voting started early in France’s overseas territories and polling stations in mainland France opened at 8am (0600 GMT) on Sunday. The first poll forecasts are expected at 8pm (1800 GMT), when the last polling stations close, with early official results expected later on Sunday evening.
Macron called the early elections after his party was defeated in European Parliament elections earlier in June by the National Rally, which has historic links to racism and anti-Semitism and is hostile to France’s Muslim community. It was a bold gamble that French voters, complacent about the European Union elections, would be prompted to champion moderate forces in national elections to keep the far right out of power.
Instead, polls suggest the National Rally is gaining support and has a chance of winning a parliamentary majority. In that scenario, Macron is expected to appoint 28-year-old National Rally chairman Jordan Bardella as prime minister in an uneasy power-sharing system known as “cohabitation.”
Although Macron has said he will not step down before his presidential term ends in 2027, cohabitation would weaken him both at home and on the world stage.
The results of the first round will provide an idea of overall voter sentiment, but not necessarily the overall composition of the next National Assembly. Predictions are extremely difficult because of the complicated voting system and because parties will work between the two rounds to build alliances in some constituencies or withdraw from others.
In the past, such tactical maneuvers helped keep far-right candidates from power. But now support for Le Pen’s party has spread deep and wide.
Bardella, who has no governing experience, says he would use prime ministerial powers to stop Macron from continuing to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons for the war with Russia. His party has historical ties to Russia.
The party has also questioned the right to citizenship for people born in France and wants to restrict the rights of French citizens with dual nationality. Critics say this undermines basic human rights and threatens France’s democratic ideals.
Meanwhile, the huge promises of Rassemblement National and especially the left-wing coalition on government spending have shocked markets and raised concerns about France’s heavy debt burden, which has already been criticised by EU watchdogs.
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