Forecasts from management consultancy Deloitte show that the German electric car market will grow much slower than the government had hoped.
By 2030, there are expected to be only 11.2 million fully electric vehicles on the road, which is 3.8 million short of the 15 million target, according to Deloitte forecasts.
The now fallen German coalition government had set a goal in 2021 to make Germany the leading market for electric mobility, with the aim of at least 15 million fully electric cars by 2030, not including hybrid vehicles.
However, China remains the dominant player in the global electric car market.
The German government’s abrupt decision to withdraw the electric car subsidy in December 2023 due to budget constraints put pressure on sales.
“To promote the acceptance of electric mobility, reliable preconditions are essential because companies need planning certainty,” says Harald Proff, head of Deloitte’s automotive division.
The 11.2 million estimate is based on a model that takes into account variables such as electricity and gasoline prices, car insurance rates and purchasing incentives.
According to the German Motor Transport Authority, there were almost 1.6 million electric cars registered in Germany as of October 1.
Public opinion in Germany remains divided
A Deloitte survey of 1,000 respondents found that 40% support the planned phase-out of new combustion engine vehicles by 2035, while 36% are against it. The remaining 24% are neutral on this issue.
Deloitte consultants are optimistic about the global rise of electric cars. “Companies must invest more in battery research to reduce vehicle prices and increase the adoption of e-mobility,” Proff said, urging the automotive industry to continue innovation.
The survey was conducted at the end of October. According to Deloitte, 1,000 people over the age of 18 participated.
