Senate Republicans believe the party’s chances of retaining its slim majority in the House of Representatives will fall or rise in November with former President Trump, as Democrats remain cautiously optimistic about regaining the House despite the chaos at the Republican Conference of the House of Representatives last year.
Republican lawmakers have been exuding confidence for months about the potential to win back the Senate in 2024, but the House of Representatives is an entirely different matter. Members said they see it as a real toss-up, with Trump being the determining factor, for better or for worse.
“It depends on whether Donald Trump wins,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a former member of the House of Representatives. “The House is so connected to national waves and political cycles. If Donald Trump wins, I find it difficult to imagine that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives.”
“If Donald Trump doesn’t win, I think we could very well win the Senate and lose the House of Representatives,” he added.
With less than six months to go until Election Day, the battle for the House of Representatives is at a razor’s edge. Regardless of which party emerges victorious, a Democratic or Republican majority will still have a slim margin to deal with heading into the 119th Congress.
Republicans in the House of Representatives are down to a two-seat margin after enduring a number of early retirements over the past year, partly due to dissatisfaction with the situation on Capitol Hill as dysfunction has emerged since the Republican Party took over the majority last year.
This helped turn the room into a jump ball.
“I would have to say it’s a toss-up,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who served seven terms in the House of Representatives, told The Hill. ‘It’s a mystery to everyone. I think it’s a real 50/50 election that tells you that something can happen in the end.”
According to the latest ratings from the Cook Political Report, 210 seats are considered lean Republican or better, while 203 are considered such for Democrats, leaving 22 seats in the toss-up category to determine control. Those 22 seats are split evenly between the Republican Party and Democrats, giving an even clearer picture of how close the battle for control is at this point.
But Republicans have gotten one big boost this year in the form of redistricting. While the party suffered some losses on that front this cycle, it scored its biggest win of all in North Carolina, where the evenly divided delegation (7 to 7) is poised for a seismic change that will see at least 10 seats controlled by the Republican Party . next year.
Democrats also refused to go to trial in New York, ending up with only a modest change that could help determine the future of the House.
Still, members on both sides are cautiously optimistic that their parties can ultimately achieve victory.
“I think there is a path. … It’s about execution,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who agreed that Trump carries a lot of weight on his shoulders to push the House over the finish line for Republicans.
“There may be a narrow ticket split, but if he does well in these districts, I think the members of the House of Representatives will too,” Trump said.
Despite the redistricting defeats, Senate Democrats are still feeling the wind in their sails, largely due to the Republican Party’s performance — or lack thereof — over the past year. The headline act was the tumult that consumed the conference in the fall when conservatives ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), sending the chamber into a freefall that reverberated for months.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has also been questioned by some, led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), after working with Democrats to pass must-pass spending bills and a supplement to the national security that delivered results. aid to Ukraine.
Democrats, who are also buoyed by a fundraising advantage, also believe their performance in 2022, in which Trump was a drag on Republicans, will continue despite the ex-president’s boost to Republican House candidates of Delegates has given when he was on the ballot, including in 2020.
“It’s high, but guarded,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who served eight terms in the House of Representatives before winning his Senate seat in 2022. “It’s an incredible scene of dysfunction among House Republicans. If performance is relevant to voters’ decisions, we’re in pretty good shape.”
“The $64 question is: Does it matter what the extreme gerrymandering and nature of tribal politics are?” Welch said. “That’s a question we all ask ourselves all the time.
‘We do not know. We’re just in a new world,” he continued.
Others, however, couldn’t be more optimistic.
Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), who led the House campaign arm in 2016 and 2018, told The Hill that his confidence level is higher now than in 2018. Democrats, of course, flipped the House. grand fashion and then by winning 41 seats and ending up in the minority for eight years.
“And in ’18 we did pretty well,” he added.
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