CHICAGO (AP) — Again and again, from the vast stage in the electric Congressional Hall, Democrats predicted this week that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump. They described her as a historic figure, the embodiment of hope, “the president of joy.”
But amid the extraordinary optimism, former first lady Michelle Obama offered a sober warning: “No matter how good we feel tonight, tomorrow or the next day, this is going to be an uphill battle.”
The word of caution was quickly drowned out by the excitement that engulfed the 17,000-person standing-room-only arena in downtown Chicago. But as activists, operatives and party leaders leave the Democratic National Convention and scatter across America, a stark reality is setting in: The real test for Harris has only just begun.
More than a month after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her, Harris has barely begun to outline the detailed plans she would pursue as president to tackle the country’s biggest challenges — immigration, crime and climate change, to name a few. She has yet to sit down for even a single extended media interview, to answer tough questions about her policy U-turns in recent years, her leadership style and the focus on race and gender that has hung over her historic candidacy.
“We can’t bury our heads in the sand. She’s a black woman. The bar is going to be higher for everything,” said John Anzalone, a pollster who has covered the last three Democratic presidential candidates. “And guess what? That means, even mistakes. Mistakes are going to be magnified.”
At the same time, Harris’ allies acknowledge that she remains largely undefined in the minds of many voters, having spent the past four years largely operating in Biden’s shadow. The relative anonymity presents both opportunities and risks.
“The bad thing about vice presidents is nobody knows who you are. The good thing about vice presidents is nobody knows who you are,” said David Axelrod, who served as former President Barack Obama’s chief strategist.
Preparing for the debate
Harris now has just over two weeks to prepare for what could be her only presidential debate against Trump, a Sept. 10 showdown that could dramatically change the direction of the race. The first presidential debate, of course, effectively forced Biden out of the race.
For now, Harris’s team is in no rush to roll out a sweeping policy platform or seek media interviews. That could jeopardize the positive vibes that defined her early campaign, drawing a flood of campaign donations and a growing army of volunteers from across the state.
In a series of meetings during the convention week, her advisers presented her policy agenda as a continuation and expansion of Biden’s first-term accomplishments, particularly on the economic front, even if in some cases it may look and sound different.
Harris has notably abandoned her opposition to fracking and her support for Medicare for All, which were defining features of her 2019 presidential campaign. Her advisers insist her values remain the same, but she has embraced more centrist policies out of pragmatism.
“She will be committed to supporting and leading pragmatic, common sense policies that are directly related to improving the lives of Americans,” said Brian Nelson, senior campaign policy advisor.
Meanwhile, Harris’ allies believe it’s only a matter of time before Trump takes an effective line of attack.
Trump’s ‘kitchen sink’ approach to Harris
In recent days, the former Republican president has taken an all-or-nothing approach against Harris, attacking her racial identity, her laugh, her record as vice president and her history as a “liberal from San Francisco.”
“He’s going to figure out how to deliver a message and deliver a political blow,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who delivered a primetime address at the convention this week, said of Trump. “I think what you’ve seen with her is that she can absorb the criticism and just move on. And that’s a very, very important political trait.”
Others acknowledge that the spotlight will only shine brighter in the 74-day sprint to Election Day. And it’s far from certain that the “Harris honeymoon,” as Trump’s team has described this phase of the campaign, will last much longer.
“People ask this question: Will people vote for a black woman? And I actually think that’s always the wrong question,” said Sarah Longwell, a fierce Trump critic who heads Republican Voters Against Trump. “I think the question is: Will people vote for Kamala Harris, with her particular set of both skills and baggage? The biggest problem for Kamala Harris is that people see her as too progressive, and that’s going to hurt her with these swing voters.”
Changing public perceptions
Polls show that voters’ views of Harris have changed relatively quickly since Biden stepped down a month ago and she became the de facto nominee.
In a June AP-NORC poll, just 39% of Americans said they had a favorable opinion of Harris, and 12% said they didn’t know enough about her to make a judgment.
After Biden stepped aside, an AP-NORC poll in August found that 48% of Americans had a favorable opinion of Harris, while just 6% said they didn’t know enough to have an opinion. The latest poll also showed that 27% of adults have a “very” favorable opinion of Harris, up from 14% in June.
This sudden change increases the likelihood that public opinion will shift again as voters learn more.
It also raises the possibility that Harris’ momentum has less to do with her candidacy than with a sense of relief among Democrats that Biden was stepping aside. Shortly before he left the race, an AP-NORC poll found that nearly two-thirds of Democrats said they did not want Biden to run again, and about half said they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee.
Quentin Wathum-Ocama, president of Young Democrats of America, said his enthusiasm is based on a combination of relief that Biden has stepped aside and excitement about Harris. Given her relatively low profile over the past four years, he acknowledged that even he doesn’t know much about her plans for office.
For example, as a teacher at a public school, he wanted to hear more about its education policy.
“Do people know her? People are aware of her,” Wathum-Ocama said. “I can be excited, but I still want more.”
He may have to wait a little longer.
A campaign with little policy?
Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, who has endorsed Harris, is a self-described policy nerd. But she said previous Democratic efforts to outline detailed policy agendas have not garnered much support from voters. She and several other Harris allies stressed this week that the candidate’s values matter most.
The party’s 2016 nominee, Hillary Clinton, for example, produced more than two dozen policy documents of more than 50,000 words with hundreds of detailed footnotes. Trump had virtually no detailed agenda that year. And Clinton lost.
“We used to do 10-point plans, they weren’t even happy with 5-point plans,” Weingarten said. “I don’t think that’s where Americans are.”
Harris has so far released only a taste of what she would pursue as president. Convention delegates have not updated the party’s formal platform to reflect her wishes. In some cases, the document still refers to “Biden’s second term.”
But some details have now emerged.
Last week, Harris outlined a plan for her first 100 days to send Congress proposed federal caps on price increases for food manufacturers and grocers. She also pledged to make permanent a $3,600 per-child tax credit approved for qualifying families through 2025, while offering a new $6,000 tax credit for families with newborns.
And she calls for building 3 million new homes over four years, along with expanding a Biden administration plan to provide $25,000 in potential down payment assistance to help some renters purchase a home.
In addition, Harris wants to accelerate an effort by the Biden administration that allowed Medicare and other federal programs to negotiate lower prescription drug costs with pharmaceutical companies. The goal is to cut the price of some of the most expensive and widely used medications by about 40% to 80% starting in 2026.
Trump’s campaign is focusing on Harris’ lack of details and her refusal to appear for media interviews, and is also watching her momentum closely.
At Trump’s rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, this week, 69-year-old assistant plant manager Jerry Zimmerman burst out laughing when asked about the Republican nominee’s prospects for November. But he also predicted that Harris would be “much harder” to beat than Biden.
He said it is possible that she will win.
“If they can prove that everything was fair, then I’m fine with it,” Zimmerman said of a possible Harris victory. “I think a lot of people would be fine with it.”
There is little time to change course
Meanwhile, the tight election timetable gives either candidate little time to drastically change course.
Early voting begins in Pennsylvania, arguably the nation’s most important swing state, on Sept. 16. Voting began in late September in North Carolina, Minnesota and Illinois. Final votes will be cast on Election Day, Nov. 5.
Space for television advertising has also already been reserved.
Between Friday and Election Day, Republicans will spend more than $120 million on presidential television advertising, according to data compiled by media tracker AdImpact. Much of the investment will be focused on attacks on Harris.
Democrats are on track to spend more than double that amount through Election Day. Harris and her allies have earmarked more than $270 million in television ads in the 73 days from Friday through Nov. 5.
Still, Michelle Obama predicted it could be a bumpy road to Election Day. She warned that Harris’ team would certainly make mistakes and encouraged Democrats to stay focused on the work needed to defeat Trump.
“The moment something goes wrong, the moment a lie takes hold, folks, we can’t sit there and wring our hands,” the former first lady said in her prime-time conference address this week. “We can’t have a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is right. And we can’t give in to our fears about whether this country is going to elect someone like Kamala, instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.”
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AP reporters Josh Boak in Chicago and Michelle L. Price in Asheboro, North Carolina, contributed.
