ROME (AP) — After forging unexpectedly good ties with U.S. President Joe Biden, Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is poised to forge a more natural alliance with newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, who positions itself as an important interlocutor between the US and Europe.
Weeks before his inauguration, Meloni met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago retreat, a visit she said went “beyond expectations.” The trip, she said, “was an opportunity to confirm a relationship that promises to be very solid,” adding diplomatically, “I don’t know if I can say privileged.”
A strong transatlantic relationship between two conservative governments creates “an added value, not only for Italy but for Europe as a whole,” she told journalists this month.
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It remains to be seen whose benefit the relationship will be, with some observers saying Meloni could either become a Trump whisperer, wielding influence, or a Trojan horse in Europe – for Trump’s purposes.
“It is clear that if Trump is looking for someone who can call Europe in an emergency, Meloni is the one,” said Franco Pavoncello, professor of political science and president of John Cabot University in Rome. “Around her in Europe it is a desert.”
Meloni projects stability
Known for rotating governments that rarely complete a full parliamentary term, Italy is in the unusual position of being the most stable government among its major European and G-7 allies, while Germany, France and even Canada are struggling.
Meloni has led her once marginal, post-fascist party from the far right to more mainstream positions, especially on foreign policy. She gained ground as a leading political figure in Europe after her far-right Brothers of Italy party performed well in the EU elections last June.
The 48-year-old Italian leader made the trip to Florida as her government was working to secure the release from Iran of an Italian journalist arrested in mid-December. Within days of her return, journalist Cecilia Sala was released in what Meloni described as a “diplomatic triangular relationship” between the US, Italy and Iran. Four days later, Italy freed an Iranian national held on a US arrest warrant.
Although Meloni denied any direct involvement by Trump in the deal, her defense secretary said the images of Meloni standing next to him strengthened her “credibility” at a critical moment.
Meloni and Trump as natural allies
On ideological grounds, Meloni is a natural ally for the next American president. She has taken on migration, seeking deals with African countries to discourage departures and is determined to screen male asylum seekers at two centers Italy built in Albania. Her government has also pursued conservative family policies, including a ban on surrogacy, and has taken action to curb abortions.
The personal chemistry between Trump and Meloni is also evident and strengthens her chances of becoming his favorite leader in Europe. The two were engaged in discussions during the celebration of the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris on December 7, when they initiated the visit to Mar-a-Lago. Meloni also has a well-documented friendship with Trump’s top adviser, Elon Musk.
The Italian prime minister is one of a handful of world leaders likely to attend Trump’s inauguration ceremony on January 20, confirming strong ties with the US government.
Common ground with center-left Biden
More surprising was Meloni’s strong relationship with Biden, who initially saw Meloni’s rise to power as a harbinger of a rightward shift in world politics. But Biden’s concerns about her ideology were allayed by her support for Ukraine in its bid to fend off Russia’s devastating invasion and her openness to withdrawing from Italy’s participation in China’s infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative.
The two met at least twice in Washington, highly unusual for an Italian leader in just two years in office. Biden even planned to make his last foreign trip as president to Italy this month. However, that trip was scrapped at the last minute so Biden could remain in Washington to oversee the federal response to the wildfires that devastated Los Angeles.
Instead, Biden and Meloni spoke by phone last Friday. The White House said Biden expressed appreciation to Meloni for Italy’s support for Ukraine and for the country’s leadership in the G7, NATO and the European Union.
Risks of the Meloni-Trump relationship
Meloni’s pro-Atlantic position, which secured her ties with Biden, could pose a challenge to a Trump relationship. Trump is pushing NATO allies to increase their spending to 5% of national output, with Italy one of only eight member states to fall below the 2% defense spending target.
“On Ukraine, the Trump administration will try to find a way to engage with Russia to find a solution and will likely ask Europe to do more,” said Mario Del Pero, an expert on transatlantic relations and professor of international history at SciencesPo in Paris. “That will put Italy in a difficult position.”
Meloni has already been forced to comment on Trump’s recent expansionist rhetoric, telling reporters that his comments on the annexation of Greenland, Canada and Panama were intended as a deterrent, as a “strong message to other major global players rather than as a hostile action.”
Italy’s economy would also be tested by Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on exports, which at 10% could cost Italy’s export-driven economy up to $7 billion, according to a study by risk analysis firm Prometeia. Italy has a trade surplus of 42 billion euros with the United States, its second largest export partner after Germany.
According to analysts, the bottom line is that Meloni remains a true nationalist, who will protect Italian interests above all.
That could work to Europe’s advantage, for example in the event of trade tariff wars or conflicts over defense spending. But it could disrupt European unity in the long term.
An already reported deal with Musk’s SpaceX to provide communications via Starlink technology to Italian institutions threatens to undermine the Iris2 orbital constellation of 290 satellites, led by a European consortium that also includes Italian defense contractor Leonardo.
“It is naive to think that she will be able to defend the interests of the EU, while she will more likely act as a Trojan horse for Trump Europe,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs. “When faced with difficult choices, she always takes the Eurosceptic route, because that is where her heart really beats.”
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Aamer Madhani from Washington, DC contributed.
