The same Michigan voters that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris needs in the critical swing state will also determine whether her party retains its position in state government, two years after securing a historic victory.
Michigan Democrats pushed a strong progressive agenda after the 2022 midterm elections, when they won control of both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office for the first time in nearly four decades.
Although the Senate will not vote on Tuesday, Democrats could risk losing their two-seat majority in the House of Representatives and potentially hamper Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s ability to add more items to her list of priorities during her last two years as president.
“We’ve done some great things, but by the slimmest of margins,” Whitmer said at a recent news conference.
Michigan is one of several states where the political balance of one or more chambers of the Legislature could tip, with Arizona, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among the other targets for both parties.
Whitmer, considered a rising Democratic star nationally, spent the first six years of her term working in a Republican-controlled Legislature. But a Democratic-led trifecta was needed over the past two years to pass things like gun control measures and tax policy, she said.
Democrats focus on protecting reproductive rights as their means to control all facets of state government, even though access to abortion is enshrined in the state constitution. Republican candidates are trying to convince voters that Democratic control at home and in Washington, D.C., has eroded their pocketbooks and public safety.
“We need to get things back under control in our state government,” said Bill G. Schuette, chairman of the Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee.
In the Downriver area south of downtown Detroit, former elementary school teacher Jaime Churches is focusing on reproductive rights and infrastructure as she seeks a second term in the State House, two years after winning the seat by just 660 votes.
“I knew how hard it was last time and I knew what it took to get there,” Churches said in an interview at her campaign office in Trenton, Michigan.
The suburban district where Churches, 36, is running against 22-year-old Republican Rylee Linting, is made up of a handful of small towns and villages in the southern part of densely populated Wayne County on the west side of the Detroit River. It is home to union workers and especially the middle class.
As the candidates ride the wave of momentum, they want to differentiate themselves by focusing on local issues. Linting, a GOP Youth Youth Vice Chairman who was involved with Charlie Kirk’s conservative Turning Point USA in Michigan, follows the small-government message and promotes conservative ideals in education. She says her childhood offers a fresh perspective on politics that appeals to voters in the district.
“It’s really my generation that will have to face the consequences of bad policy decisions in Lansing,” Linting said in an interview.
During the midterm elections, a citizen-led ballot initiative to protect abortion access helped lead to Democratic victories. Frank Hamet, a Republican precinct representative in Flat Rock, said presidential turnout will likely have a similar impact on the competitive Downriver races.
Hamet said some workers concerned about the cost of living are turning to Trump, a possible signal of danger for Democratic congressional candidates.
“People, if they’re frustrated with the way things are going, you run the risk of voters wanting to purge everyone,” he said.
The national Legislative Campaign Committee announced in September that it would contribute an additional $500,000 to 13 targeted races in Michigan. The latest campaign finance reports in the state show the group has spent more than $3.5 million.
The Republican State Leadership Committee has not responded to an inquiry into investments in Michigan, but recent campaign finance reports show the Michigan PAC has spent $1.6 million this year.
Groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans previously planned to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the state legislature battle, with more than 5,800 legislative seats up for election in 44 states this year.
Wisconsin Democrats enter November hoping to regain control of the Assembly for the first time since 2011 and make enough gains in the Senate with the goal of capturing the majority in that chamber within two years.
In neighboring Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz – Harris’ vice presidential running mate – leveraged a Democratic trifecta to advance a sweeping progressive agenda. That could be on the line this year, as a special election for an open seat will determine which party controls the Minnesota Senate, which is currently tied, with Republicans needing a net gain of just four seats to regain control of the state. to take over House.
While New Hampshire’s 24-member Senate has been more reliably Republican, control of the 400-member House has changed in six of the last 10 elections. The margin in the House of Representatives narrowed in 2022, and changes since then have left the chamber with 197 Republicans, 191 Democrats, one independent and eleven vacancies. Because they were so closely divided, neither party has made significant changes in the past two years.
If Republicans take over the Michigan House, Democrats will likely rush to pass a voting rights package and other legislation during the lame duck period between Election Day and when the new Legislature is sworn in.
Whitmer said that while the presidential election draws the most attention, the election is just as important.
“Who is elected to the Legislature matters a lot to your daily lives,” Whitmer said.
