There is growing, but still circumstantial, evidence that a Syrian Airlines Il-76 Candid cargo plane, currently at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, appeared to have gone missing during the last chaotic moments of Bashar Al Assad’s regime. Rumors and claims circulated that the plane was carrying Assad and was shot down after disappearing from online flight tracking sites. The Syrian dictator fled the capital Damascus to Khmeimim and then to Moscow, according to the first statement attributed to him in more than a week and published earlier today.
A Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen at Khmeimim Air Base on December 15, 2024. Izzettin Kasim/Anadolu via Getty Images
The statement purportedly from Assad was posted earlier today via a channel on the social media network Telegram linked to the now defunct Syrian regime, but it is unclear whether he actually drafted the statement and/or posted it online put. The deposed Syrian dictator has not been seen in public for more than a week, despite Russian officials saying they have offered him asylum. You can read more about the overall current situation in Syria, which remains very fluid, in our previous coverage here.
According to the statement, Assad moved to Khmeimim on December 8 through unspecified means and with the help of Russia. It also claims that the Syrian strongman initially planned to continue commanding the fight against the rebels from the Russian base. So far there has been no independent confirmation of this claim. The war zone has noted in the past that the Russian air base would be the safest place in the country for Assad in the event of a crisis.
“As there were no feasible means to leave the base, Moscow requested the base command to arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia on Sunday evening, December 8,” the statement added. “This took place one day after the fall of Damascus, following the collapse of the last military positions and the resulting paralysis of all remaining state institutions.”
The basic timeline outlined in the statement is consistent with online flight tracking data that showed a Syrian Airlines Il-76 with the Syrian registration YK-ATA flying north from the Damascus area early on December 8. The tracking data for that flight stopped shortly afterward. passed through the city of Homs, which the rebels had taken control of on December 7. That, combined with data showing a pronounced left turn and a steep drop in speed and altitude, all the way to 1,625 feet and 130 knots, had quickly led to rumors that the plane had been shot down.
Last night we monitored an Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.
The flight took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.
*We can confirm that the flight took place.
*The aircraft was old and had an older transponder generation, so some data may be bad or… pic.twitter.com/uCGUnVeug0— Vluchtradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024
Publicly available data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which is primarily intended to help monitor wildfires and other fires caused by natural disasters, had also shown a “hotspot” right in the area where the plane flew from the radar disappeared. The war zone has been working to obtain high-resolution images of this location, but we have not yet received a clear image. To date, no further images have emerged showing any apparent Il-76 wreckage in Syria.
Last night we monitored an Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.
The flight took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.
*We can confirm that the flight took place.
* The aircraft was old and had an older transponder generation, so some data may be bad or… pic.twitter.com/uCGUnVeug0— Vluchtradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024
FIRMS (NASA’s Space-Based Fire/Thermal Anomaly Tracking System) received a hit early this morning at the spot where the IL-76 disappeared on radar between the Lebanese border and Homs. pic.twitter.com/XQDGR2yLEw
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) December 8, 2024
“The area in which the aircraft flew, particularly the area of Syria between Homs and the coast, is regularly subject to GPS interference – including spoofing and jamming,” says a December 12 post from the official blog of online flight tracking site Flightradar24. . “With that in mind, analyzing the raw ADS-B data received from YK-ATA reveals position and velocity data that stretches credulity.”
It’s also worth noting that YK-ATA’s northbound trip was unusual to begin with, based on ADS-B Exchange flight tracking data that The war zone assessed. In the months leading up to Assad’s fall, the aircraft was very active, but routes to and from locations in Africa were observed. Flightradar24’s December 12 blog post also states that “the aircraft has regularly visited Benghazi, Libya, in recent months.” There are now reports that Russia may seek to incur some losses from its presence in Syria by expanding its position in Libya, although there are no indications linked to YK-ATA’s recent flight history.
An example of a typical flight path for YK-ATA in the months leading up to the fall of the Assad regime. This particular flight took place on December 3. ADS-B exchange
In addition, a Syrian Airlines Il-76 has now been confirmed parked in a corner of an open platform on the northeast side of Khmeimim. Satellite images The war zone an assessment from Planet Labs has shown that the Candid was at its current position on December 9th. An Il-76 was parked between the runways the day before and was not there on December 7.
A Syrian Airlines Yak-40, a passenger plane that is between a large business jet and a small plane in size, also appeared on December 8. The Yak-40 was initially parked on a different platform, but was then moved to the Il-76 by December 13.
The video in the social media post below, taken via drone and based in Turkey Syria TV published last week clearly shows a Syrian Airlines Il-76 in Khmeimim at multiple points during its run.
A satellite image of Khmeimim taken on December 13, showing the Syrian Airlines Il-76 and Yak-40 on the left, and a Russian An-124 cargo plane on the right. Satellite photo ©2024 Maxar Technologies
The Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen on the left in this satellite image of Khmeimim from December 10. A Russian Il-76 can also be seen on the platform on the right. Satellite photo ©2024 Maxar Technologies
In addition, a Russian Il-76 was tracked leaving Khmeimim towards Moscow on December 8, further aligning with the timeline in the new statement attributed to Assad.
All told, there are signs that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim is YK-ATA and that Assad used that aircraft or the Yak-40 as part of his final flight from the country on December 8. The Il-76 could have been used to help other assets, including the regime’s wealth, get to Khmeimim and then out of the country. It would have been a top priority for Assad to get physical assets, including gold and currency reserves, to a safe place. The Assad family has reportedly been siphoning off vast wealth abroad for years. There are reports that other former government officials have fled to the Russian base to also leave the country with the help of the Kremlin.
However, it remains unknown for certain whether it is YK-ATA at the Russian base. Syrian Airlines has four Il-76s in its inventory and no images have surfaced yet that clearly show the registration on the example in Khmeimim. There is still a possibility that YK-ATA went somewhere else or crashed.
Many questions remain about what could happen to Khmeimim air base, including Syrian Airlines planes there, and to Russia’s Tartus naval base. The air and naval facilities are highly strategic facilities for the Kremlin that support operations outside Syria. A substantial withdrawal of Russian troops from the country is underway, but it remains unclear whether they will leave for good. Russian officials insist they are still trying to hold on to their two prized bases, but there are unconfirmed reports they could be ordered to leave the country within a month. You can read more about what is now known about these deliberations in the reporting here.
The end of the Assad regime has already provided an opportunity for unprecedented views on Khmeimim. Perhaps clearer images will now emerge showing the registration code of Syrian Airlines Il-76, to resolve the question of whether this is the ‘missing’ aircraft for good.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com
