Nogales, Ariz – The lull in the number of illegal border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border continued in October, according to preliminary figures from Customs and Border Protection obtained by CBS News. But officials fear this could be disrupted by the crisis presidential elections on Tuesday.
Border Patrol agents recorded nearly 57,000 apprehensions of migrants between legal entry points along the U.S. southern border in October, internal federal statistics show. That’s a little higher from 54,000 in Septemberand very similar to the 58,000 and 56,000 arrests in August and July respectively.
The last time monthly apprehensions were lower than the previous four-month levels was four years ago, in September 2020, when Border Patrol apprehended fewer than 55,000 migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border, according to historical CBP data.
CBP’s figures do not include those processed at legal border crossings, where the Biden administration is allowing more than 1,000 migrants a day through an appointment system powered by a U.S. government phone app. known as CBP One.
Jose Luis González / REUTERS
After peaking at 250,000 in December 2023, the number of illegal crossings at the southern border fell earlier this year, largely due to aggressive efforts by Mexico to ban migrants from entering the US. They fell even further after President Biden invoked sweeping presidential powers to sharply limit asylum policies in early June, and fell precipitously that month and in early July. Since then, migrant crossings have come to a standstill.
While the number of illegal border crossings remains low, some U.S. officials are concerned that the presidential election could upset the fragile balance achieved at the southern border in recent months. Three US officials said there could be a spike in illegal crossings former President Donald Trump wins the election as migrants try to enter the US before he takes power in January.
“I could definitely see an increase, either a pre-inauguration increase or a continued increase after the election,” said one of the U.S. officials, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press.
While Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to maintain and strengthen Mr. Biden’s asylum restrictions, Trump has pledged to completely close the southern border, including by halting the CBP One app and other programs that allow migrants to legally enter the U.S. can enter. He also promised to restore his tough immigration policies, such as the Remain-in-Mexico program, and the largest deportation operation in American history.
A CBP official said the agency “remains alert to constantly changing migration patterns – including the operations of transnational criminal organizations and other bad actors that facilitate human trafficking – and adjusts operations accordingly.”
During its first three years in office, the Biden administration faced an unprecedented migration crisis at the southern border, fueled in part by record arrivals of migrants from crisis-hit countries like Venezuela, where the U.S. cannot send deportees. It caused chaos and coincided with growing public concerns about border security.
It also heralded a dramatic policy shift for the Biden administration, which came to power promising to “rebuild” the U.S. asylum system. But the crackdown on asylum seekers that Biden implemented in June relies on the same authority the Trump administration used to restrict legal and illegal immigration, and disqualifies most migrants from U.S. protection. Those using the CBP One app are exempt.
Adam Isacson, a migration policy analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group, said he expects migration flows to remain relatively flat if Harris wins, as she has pledged to largely continue Biden’s policies. But he predicted a “major jump” in border crossings if Trump is elected, especially by those in Mexico awaiting a CBP One appointment.
“The message, both from smugglers and migrants to each other, will be ‘get there now. There is a hard deadline,’” Isacson said, referring to Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025.
