1975’s “Jaws” is remembered as the film that gave birth to the global blockbuster of the summer; the many children include ‘Star Wars’, ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark’, ‘ET: The Extra-Terrestrial’, ‘Top Gun’, ‘Ghostbusters’, ‘Ghost’, ‘Twister’, ‘The Lion King’ , ‘Independence’ Day,” “Speed” and “Men in Black.” Today that bloodline is threatened with extinction.
At first glance that seems ridiculous – the summer box office is still defined by blockbusters – but today that means sequels. It has become extremely rare for studios to invest more than $100 million in a summer movie with an original screenplay that isn’t already part of a franchise. That’s what makes Paramount Pictures’ $110 million “IF” such an outlier.
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Yet that exception also presents writer-director John Krasinski with a double-edged sword. Those original blockbusters – all released between 1975 and 1999 – ended up with domestic gross totals, in terms of 2024 ticket prices, of more than $400 million. The opening weekend consensus for “IF” was around $40 million, although some recent projections have been lower.
After World War II, when drive-ins boomed and before air conditioning was standard, summer was B-movie season. Seven Spielberg’s feature adaptation of Peter Benchley’s “Jaws” changed that concept forever — a shift that, not coincidentally, paralleled the change to same-day national releases supported by TV ads. It is still the third biggest summer release ever.
Like “Jaws,” these summer blockbusters were original ideas, but they weren’t complex. Like the killer shark that terrorizes a sleepy coastal village, they were based on “high concepts”: storm chasers face killer tornadoes, aliens invade Washington, murdered husband warns his widow of danger. Add movie stars, dramatic tension, a little humor and the die was cast.
That’s where “IF” can fall short. Reviews are mixed, citing a screenplay with magical moments that threaten to be overwhelmed by cluttered storytelling and an erratic tone. And it doesn’t sound like a summer blockbuster: Ryan Reynolds (before July’s “Deadpool and Wolverine”) is second only to Cailey Fleming as a troubled girl who can see imaginary friends. The adult cast also includes Krasinski, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Steve Carrell and the late Louis Gossett Jr.
On the other hand, “ET” had no stars and was also about a similar girl and a strange companion – but that was over 40 years ago.
Krasinski’s inventive and original “A Quiet Place” franchise has grossed approximately $640 million worldwide to date, with a third installment on the way. Expanding its relationship with the actor-filmmaker, Paramount gave the PG-rated “IF” a key play date in May (with Memorial Day on the second weekend), positioning it as the first family film of the summer.
Success requires several weeks of strong play and decent overseas results; last weekend it opened in France and Belgium to about half the price of “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.” Theaters want “IF” to be a success; they’re desperate for a sustained string of hits and eager for studios to take more risks on non-franchise projects. That’s all the more important after the disappointing results of “The Fall Guy,” which wasn’t original in the same sense (Ryan Gosling’s stuntman movie was based on a 1970s TV series), but its practical impact for moviegoers was in essentially the same.
Despite good reviews, Gosling’s momentum, strong marketing, and a great date, that $130 million film (before marketing) will struggle to gross well above $150 million worldwide.
The most highly anticipated summer movies are franchise titles. But what helped boost the domestic total to $4 billion last year was nearly $1 billion from the original “Barbie”/”Oppenheimer” combination.
They were also exceptions that confirmed the rule: the road to clicking on original films is difficult. “Barbie” had the consciousness of the iconic doll plus the credibility of Greta Gerwig. “Oppenheimer” had Christopher Nolan and the status of a must-see event, and even if the subject matter wasn’t a blockbuster, it at least gave a clear idea of what to expect.
Both “IF” and “The Fall Guy” lacked those advantages. Then again, a generation ago that didn’t seem to matter. Now it seems like a huge barrier.
What happened? In part, the success of those original, high-concept films also sowed the seeds for their destruction. They spawned multiple sequels, reducing the need for original titles. This created the model for developing production schedules around titles that were elastic enough to create offshoots such as comic book universes.
The greater need to appeal to a more homogeneous global audience also reinforces aesthetic conservatism. It’s worth noting that 45 percent of “ET’s” global box office came from international territories; for the box office of “Barbie” represented 56 percent internationally.
Neither title is a make or break situation, but eyes are on the risks and costs of ‘The Fall Guy’ and ‘IF’. They will play an important role in whether similar films receive support in the future.
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