Want to torment your favorite college football fan at the next tailgate? Start a game of What-if. Over the course of thousands of games in hundreds of games in a college football season, a few truly crucial games define the year and shape a team’s trajectory. Find those, highlight them, and discuss what would have been if those plays had gone the other way.
Here are a dozen plays that shaped the 2024 College Playoff field, plays that could very well have led to a very different playing field than we have now. Think about what could have happened…
September 14, LSU at South Carolina
The play: Two actually, but the most egregious and painful came in the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks had two separate pick-sixes wiped off the board due to penalties, and in the fourth quarter South Carolina could have taken a 40-29 lead with six minutes left. South Carolina would lose 36-33, the first of three losses of the season.
The effect: South Carolina caught fire as Alabama fizzled out; had the Gamecocks reached December with just two losses (and a win over the eventual ACC champions), they would have made the field.
October 5, Kansas at Arizona State
The play: Trailing 31-28 with just 16 seconds left on the clock, Arizona State’s Sam Levitt finds Jordyn Tyson in the end zone for a miraculous touchdown. Final score: Sun Devils 35, Jayhawks 31.
The effect: Without that win, Arizona State won’t get close to the Big 12 title game, let alone a CFP first-round bye.
Oct. 12, Ole Miss at LSU
The play: Trailing 23-16 with just over two minutes left in the game, LSU faces a do-or-die fourth-and-6 at its own 29. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier finds Mason Taylor for a 16 completion yards, and a few plays later LSU scores a tying touchdown. The Tigers will win in overtime.
The effect: The loss was Ole Miss’ second of three on the season, and effectively buried the Rebels in an SEC hole from which they could not escape. Even a two-loss Ole Miss team certainly would have made the playoffs against SMU or Indiana this year.
October 19, Alabama at Tennessee
The play: With 5:52 left in the game, trailing 17-14, Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava hits Chris Brazzell for a 16-yard touchdown to take the lead for good. Alabama would respond by gaining a negative yard total on its final three drives.
The effect: Had Alabama turned around any of its three losses, it would have made the CFP field. Oddly enough, the Tide put up their toughest fight against their toughest opponent; Alabama had controlled Tennessee for almost the entire game.
Oct. 26, SMU at Duke
The play: Duke had clawed back from a 21-7 deficit to force overtime. SMU got the ball first and scored a touchdown. Duke followed with a one-play, 25-yard touchdown strike of its own. Hoping to capitalize on the momentum and home field advantage, Duke went for two and the win… but Maalik Murphy’s pass attempt to Eli Pancol was incomplete and SMU won 28-27.
The heaviest beat I’ve ever seen.
• SMU had 6 turnovers, Duke had 0
• Duke blocked game-winning field goal
• Loss on failed 2-pt conversion in OT (pass interference not called)— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 27, 2024
The effect: A loss earlier in the season wouldn’t have kept SMU out of the ACC Championship, but it would have kept a three-loss Mustang team out of the CFP.
Nov. 23, Penn State at Minnesota
The play: Leading by just one point, with three minutes left in the game and facing fourth-and-1 at its own 34, Penn State ran a fake punt and gained 32 yards. The Nittany Lions held onto the ball for the rest of the game and claimed a narrow victory.
The effect: A two-loss Penn State would have fallen out of the Big Ten Championship and later possibly out of the CFP entirely.
Nov. 23, Ole Miss at Florida
The play: Choose one: the interception Jaxson Dart threw with 1:43 left, or the one he threw with 17 seconds left. Game over.
The effect: Trailing 24-17, Dart had a chance to lead Ole Miss back into the playoff hunt; instead, the loss to Florida effectively eliminated the three-loss Rebels from consideration.
Nov. 23, BYU at Arizona State
The play: With one second left on the clock and Arizona State leading 28-23 — and after clearing the field of storming students — BYU attempted a Hail Mary that fell short when the receiver hit the ground at the 2-yard line.
The effect: Had BYU won, it would have advanced to the Big 12 championship game instead of facing Arizona State. So close to glory.
Nov. 30, Miami at Syracuse
The play: Trailing 41-35, Miami drove the ball to the Syracuse 8 with less than five minutes left in the game. But an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty forced Miami back to the 23, and it could only climb back to the 10-yard line. With 3:42 left, Mario Cristobal elected to go for the field goal, and would never see the ball again.
The effect: Final score, 41-38. Miami trailed Alabama in the CFP standings and thus never got a chance to move up to the final CFP slot after SMU lost to Clemson.
November 30, Georgia Tech in Georgia
The play: With just over two minutes remaining and a 27-20 lead, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King drove forward into the Georgia line but fumbled the ball away. That gave the Bulldogs possession at the Tech 32; they quickly tied the game to force the instant-classic eight-overtime run that ended in a Georgia victory. But King was clearly the target; If the officials had called that correctly, Georgia Tech would have had the ball in midfield first. No guarantee of a Tech win, but the odds would be much more favorably in their favor.
The effect: Georgia had already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship, but would face a do-or-die prospect with three losses, rather than a seeding problem. And would an SEC champion from Georgia have been seeded second with three losses?
December 7 Clemson at SMU, Part 1
The play: With just 16 seconds left, trailing 31-24, SMU’s Kevin Jennings found Roderick Daniels in the end zone to cap a frantic 17-point fourth quarter for the Mustangs.
The effect: SMU would lose the game 16 seconds later, but that late surge was enough to convince the CFP selection committee that the Mustangs belonged in the playoffs. Would they have gotten the nod if they hadn’t scored on that last drive?
December 7 Clemson at SMU, Part 2
The play: With no time on the clock, Clemson’s Nolan Hauser, a true freshman, booted a 56-yard field goal, giving Clemson a 34-31 victory and another ACC title.
The effect: A win was the only way Clemson got into the CFP with three losses. The kick wasn’t do or die, but after maintaining a lead until the final seconds of the game and facing a motivated SMU squad, Clemson’s chances of a potential overtime were questionable at best.
Eleven games remain to determine a national champion. What plays will we look back on six weeks from now as crucial?