While the focus has been on the expected tight swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, one state in the heartland has shocked pollsters.
Kamala Harris leads in a new poll of likely voters in Iowa, a complete reversal from the candidate’s expected performance in the state from earlier this year. Harris has a 47% to 44% lead over Donald Trump in the new Des Moines Register poll.
That’s the reverse of how the candidates polled in the state in September, where Trump had a four-point lead over Harris. And it’s a stunning change from the polls while President Joe Biden was in the race. The final poll of a Biden-Trump contest gave Trump an 18-point lead over the president and the state is largely taken for granted as an easy Republican Party win by both campaigns.
While the poll’s latest results are essentially a toss-up — Harris’ margin of victory falls within the poll’s margin of error — it’s still an encouraging sign for a Harris campaign that expected to throw away votes in key swing states with impossible results . polling calling.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Register. “She has clearly achieved a leadership position.”
Harris won women in Iowa by 20 percentage points, and independents have fallen into the Harris camp 46% to 39%. The poll of 808 likely voters also showed Harris with a surprising lead among voters of 65, with 55% of respondents choosing the vice president and just 36% choosing Trump.
