Losing a deputy just two years after being elected on a joint ticket can be seen as a major blow to a president, but not in Kenya this time.
As soon as Rigathi Gachagua was seen to be undermining William Ruto, he took swift action to sack his second-in-command.
He had seen firsthand how a rift between Kenya’s top two can lead to government dysfunction after falling out with his former boss Uhuru Kenyatta.
Kenya’s unprecedented political changes, broadcast live on television, may have looked orderly and seamless to the outsider.
The impeachment process has been followed with interest by many, as the two houses of parliament, the courts and finally the executive branch appeared to fulfill their roles according to a carefully prescribed legal procedure.
But for many Kenyans, it was a rollercoaster that stirred strong opinions from across the country.
There was an initial sense of betrayal and disappointment, especially from Gachagua’s home region of Mount Kenya, but on Friday morning this was replaced by a sense of acceptance as the man chosen to replace him, Kithure Kindiki, is from the same region.
Mount Kenya played a major role in Ruto’s defeat of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the hard-fought 2022 presidential election.
Odinga ran with a powerful former justice minister, Martha Karua, who is from the region, and was supported by Kenyatta, the then outgoing president, also from there.
But in the end, Ruto, with Gachagua on board, won by a landslide in that part of the country.
For context, Kenyan politics is largely driven by regional – some would say ethnic – blocs and Mount Kenya has about a quarter of the country’s votes.
It is no surprise that three of the five presidents since independence – Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta – were from the region. This is why the two front-runners in the last presidential election – Ruto and Odinga – chose their running mates from there, as they both came from elsewhere in the country.
Disrupting the region could therefore mean political suicide for a president in his first term.
But Gachagua’s attempts to consolidate his hold on the bloc effectively proved to be his undoing.
He was accused by parliament of, among other things, promoting ethnically divisive politics, while he was expected to be a national unifier.
He coined the phrase “usiguze mlima”, which means “don’t touch the mountain”, and positioned himself as a fierce defender of the Mount Kenya region and a gateway to it.
During the impeachment proceedings, clips were played showing him suggesting that the government would prioritize the areas that voted for the winning ticket, although Ruto had also made similar statements.
Lawmakers from other areas passionately condemned such sentiments.
Ruto remained silent as his deputy was led through the impeachment proceedings, despite pleas for presidential intervention, including asking for forgiveness “if he [Gachagua] had wronged him.
There was a very recent precedent of the chaos that ensued when a president and his deputy had a falling out.
During Kenyatta’s second term, Ruto, then vice president himself, complained of being sidelined and persecuted.
The victim card endeared him to many, including in the political backyard of the then president.
But he needed more than sympathy to win the 2022 presidential election; he had to choose his running mate from Mount Kenya.
While many expected the President to choose his old ally, law professor Kithure Kindiki, Ruto pulled off a surprise move when he opted to go with then MP Rigathi Gachagua.
Kindiki was already well known in Kenya, having served as deputy speaker before being removed from his post in a Kenyatta-instigated purge against Ruto’s allies.
MPs in Ruto’s party voted overwhelmingly for Kindiki, they said three times, when he sought their involvement in choosing a running mate. Gachagua came second, but was ultimately Ruto’s choice.
The replacement therefore comes as no surprise.
That he comes from “the mountain,” even though it is one of the smaller ethnic groups, has helped calm feelings of anger and betrayal.
Many locals speaking on television have called for acceptance of the president’s choice to avoid divisions in the region.
This is what it all boils down to: moving on to the next election, just three years away.
But it will undoubtedly still erode the president’s support in Mount Kenya.
The success of this process also depends heavily on Ruto’s new alliance with his bitter enemy from the last election, Odinga, whose MPs and Senators voted overwhelmingly to remove Gachagua from office.
The National Assembly has also selected a close associate of Odinga, senior counsel James Orengo, to lead its legal team during the impeachment process.
There was undoubtedly a convergence of interests here. But it could be a poisoned chalice for Ruto.
How long the argument lasts is unpredictable. But it is indicative of Kenya’s ever-changing political landscape.
For now, Ruto has appointed four leading members of Odinga’s party to the Cabinet and is backing him for the influential position of the next African Union commission chairman.
The two men have a long political history together as allies or rivals.
In the 2002 presidential election, Ruto supported Kenyatta, while Odinga supported Kibaki, who ultimately won.
Five years later, loyalties shifted: Ruto supported Odinga and Kenyatta sided with incumbent President Kibaki during the closely contested 2007 elections, which culminated in nationwide violence.
Ruto and Kenyatta were subsequently charged by the International Criminal Court for their alleged role in the fighting while supporting the opposing sides.
But in the next two elections of 2013 and 2017, they aligned and defeated Odinga.
The cases against them at the ICC were ultimately dismissed due to lack of evidence.
In Kenyan politics, all alliances are possible, no matter how unlikely they may seem to the outsider.
All national leaders are trying to do is keep their regional or ethnic blocs intact and use them as a bargaining chip as they look for partnerships and a formula to win national elections.
Both Ruto and Odinga have worked towards this for a long time, after entering politics in their youth.
They both have loyal supporters – as evidenced by their recent alliance, which saw Odinga’s supporters fully rally behind a politician they opposed almost to the last man just two years ago.
Gachagua hoped to achieve the same status, but his ambition has burned him for now.
He is fighting his impeachment in court and if successful, it could yet give him a political lifeline. If not, the law prohibits him from running for office for at least ten years.
This kind of politics is a long game. At 59 years old, Gachagua is a fairly late entrant and his future is unclear.
He may be condemned to political oblivion, or he may yet return to the arena – as Ruto’s rival or even his ally.
Despite what appears to be an acrimonious divorce, with the president quickly moving on, no one in Kenya would be surprised to see him on national television shaking hands and smiling with his estranged former deputy.
The political scene in Kenya is an active seismic zone; the tectonic plates are constantly shifting and anything is possible.
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