The significance of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes for the 2024 presidential election

Whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, most experts agree that the path to the White House includes Pennsylvania’s electoral votes.

In recent history, the popular vote in Pennsylvania – which decides who gets the electoral votes – has been very close. In 2020, it took four days for CBS News to declare Joe Biden the winner of the state’s presidential election.

According to the most recent U.S. census data, Pennsylvania is the fifth most populous state in the United States, with an estimated population of 12,961,683 in 2023.

A state of this size, with a population that is fairly evenly divided politically, is going to be a state to watch on election night.

How many electoral votes does Pennsylvania have?

The number of electoral votes awarded to a state is based on that state’s number of senators and representatives in Congress, which depends on population. To become president, a candidate must obtain 270 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania now has 19 electoral votes, up from the 20 it had during the 2020 presidential election, thanks to reapportionment after the 2020 census. It was the fifth census in a row Pennsylvania lost a congressional seat.

Recent Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

Since the 1992 presidential election, which elected Bill Clinton president, most Pennsylvanians have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. The only outlier came during the 2016 race, when Republican challenger Donald Trump won 48.2% of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 47.5%.

Since 1900, Pennsylvania has voted Democratic 45.2% of the time and Republican 51.6% of the time.

While there are states where more electoral votes are at stake, none of these states have traditionally been as close as Pennsylvania.