The storm surge threat from Hurricane Milton is increasing. Here’s what Tampa Bay should pay attention to.

Hurricane Milton has “explosively intensified” in the southern Gulf of Mexico as it continues path towards Florida. Milton underwent rapid intensification, from a tropical storm Sunday morning to a powerful storm Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.

Each public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center also includes adjustments to the track of this storm system. The forecast track with Milton is focused on the west coast of Florida, but the position of the storm’s center, or “eye,” could determine how catastrophic the impact is on the Tampa Bay area.

While Milton developed into a major hurricane with wind speeds more than 180 km/hThe strength of the system increased the severity of the storm surge forecast for all coastal areas, including Florida’s Gulf Coast. The eastern side of the eye is considered the “dirty side” of the storm, where winds are usually strongest. As the predicted track shifts north, the dirty side falls over Tampa Bay. This in turn creates a greater risk of a storm surge in that confined area.

In addition, the waters on Florida’s Gulf side are much shallower than on the Atlantic side, meaning storm surges can have an even greater impact on communities along the Gulf.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the maximum storm surge forecast from 8 to 12 feet to 12 to 15 feet of flooding for the area from Anclote River to Tampa Bay. This increased intensity is a direct response to the strength of the storm as maximum sustained wind speed increased.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and south of the landfall location, where the surge will be associated with large and dangerous waves,” the NHC said in an advisory issued Monday afternoon. “Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the wave and the tidal cycle, and can vary widely over short distances.”

In another advisory Monday evening, NHC stated, “While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane due to landfall in Florida.”

All coastal residents and visitors are urged to follow evacuation orders from local officials.