TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — President Joe Biden’s proposed ceasefire has made the prime minister’s appointment prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads, with both trajectories likely to shape the legacy of Israel’s longest-serving and deeply divided leader.
The proposal offers the potential to end Israel’s war against Hamas, return dozens of hostages held by the Islamist militant group, calm its northern border with Lebanon and potentially advance a historic deal to ease ties with Saudi -to normalize Arabia.
But it would also likely destroy Netanyahu’s governing coalition, potentially pushing him into opposition and making him more vulnerable to a conviction in his corruption trial. The complete withdrawal of Israeli forces called for in the deal could allow Hamas to claim victory and rebuild itself.
On the other hand, Netanyahu’s rejection of the deal could deepen Israel’s international isolation, worsen ties with a US administration eager to end the war and expose him to accusations that he abandoned the hostages to pursue his own to save my skin.
It’s a mystery, and that could explain the strange choreography of Biden’s Friday evening speech: a US president, announcing what he believes is an Israeli proposal, during the Jewish Sabbath, when Israel’s political class remains largely silent.
Netanyahu acknowledged the proposal but then appeared to contradict Biden’s comments. He said Israel remains committed to dismantling Hamas’ military and government capabilities and that any talk of a permanent ceasefire before then was a “nonstarter.”
On Monday he said the destruction of Hamas was “part of the proposal” and during a closed parliamentary hearing he said Israel reserves the right to go to war again if its objectives are not achieved.
But it has never been clear what destroying Hamas entails or whether it is even possible. Biden said Israel had demoted Hamas to the point where it could no longer carry out an Oct. 7-style attack, and that continuing the war risked Israel becoming bogged down in Gaza.
But Netanyahu appears to be looking for a much bigger victory.
‘NETANYAHU’S END GAME IS SURVIVAL’
Netanyahu’s critics fear he will reject any ceasefire to appease his ultranationalist government partners, the finance minister. Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want to continue the war, completely reoccupy Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there.
They have already promised to leave the government if the proposal announced by Biden becomes reality. Netanyahu’s political opponents have offered a safety net if he reaches a deal on the release of hostages, but they are unlikely to help him stay in power in the long term.
“Everything that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand or threaten to do, you see that Netanyahu is very alert to it,” said Tal Schneider, an Israeli political commentator. “Netanyahu’s endgame is survival.”
Netanyahu’s current government, formed in late 2022 after five consecutive elections, is the most nationalistic and religious in Israel’s history. Months before the war, policies that entrenched Israel’s occupation of the West Bank deepened the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community’s dependence on state subsidies and set in motion an overhaul of the legal system that tore the country apart.
The coalition initially had a narrow majority of 64 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament — enough to govern, but with a vulnerability that would keep Netanyahu’s fate tied to the whims of the smaller parties that form the government.
A VETERAN OF ‘DIFFICULT’ POLITICS
Shortly after the October 7 Hamas attack ignited the war in Gaza, Bennie Gantz, a former military leader and a top political rival of Netanyahu, joined the government in a show of unity. Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant formed a three-person war cabinet to lead the offensive.
Mazal Mualem, a biographer of Netanyahu, said his efforts have largely succeeded in sidelining the ultranationalists and allowing Netanyahu to govern in a more pragmatic form that has defined his seventeen years as president, dating back to the 1990s .
She pointed to Israel’s limited response to an airstrike by Iran in April, which Ben-Gvir criticized as “weak,” and to an agreement on a ceasefire and hostage release reached with Hamas in November, which Smotrich had initially protested but later voted for.
“Over the years, Bibi has taught himself to do what he wants to do in difficult political environments,” she said, referring to Netanyahu by his popular nickname.
But Gantz has threatened to leave the government unless Netanyahu comes up with a post-war plan by June 8, which would make him much more dependent on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Netanyahu’s decision to continue Israel’s massive military campaign in Gaza while dozens of hostages languish in captivity has opened him up to fierce criticism from many Israelis, including the prisoners’ families. Thousands have joined weekly mass protests.
“The government of Israel has given up the hostages,” Yehi Yehud, who has taken an adult child hostage in Gaza, told Israeli army radio. “Bibi, you do not have the permission or the moral validity to sacrifice them on the altar of your political survival.”
OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Netanyahu’s tough stance has also weighed heavily on Israel’s relations with its closest ally, the United States, which has provided crucial military support but has expressed exasperation over civilian casualties and the lack of realistic Israeli post-war plans.
Internationally, it has exposed Israel to accusations of genocide, which it denies, and to a possible international arrest warrant for Netanyahu himself.
In his speech on Friday, Biden appeared to offer Netanyahu a way out: claim victory by saying a battered Hamas can no longer mount an October 7-style attack, bring all the hostages home and then work with the US and the Arab countries. build a new regional security architecture.
But the fear of losing power could gain the upper hand.
For years, Netanyahu has fostered the image that only he can lead Israel through its myriad diplomatic and security challenges. That legacy suffered a major blow on October 7, with many Israelis directly blaming him for the most devastating security failure in the country’s history. Opinion polls show Netanyahu trailing Gantz and would struggle to form a government if elections were held today.
For all their threats, his far-right allies are in a similar situation. They would likely join him in opposition if snap elections were held, losing the power he had granted them over the Israeli police and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.
If Netanyahu can keep his coalition together until the next scheduled elections in 2026, he may be able to rebuild his image. His poll numbers have already begun to rise from the depths they reached after October 7, as he has presented himself as resistant to international pressure to end the war.
Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, said Netanyahu’s wartime decision-making has less to do with immediate political survival and more to do with securing a legacy that would not be completely eclipsed on October 7. That requires some kind of victory over Hamas.
“From a historical perspective, Netanyahu’s only option is to go all the way,” he said. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich “help him reach that destination, to keep his head above water.”
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