Tammy Baldwin faces a race in November that the Democratic senator from Wisconsin has forged, one that will test the rural-urban coalition and whether Democrats can retain their narrow majority in the U.S. Senate.
Baldwin is running against Eric Hovde, a real estate magnate and banker who campaigned on popular Republican issues such as immigration and the economy, while linking Baldwin to Joe Biden.
Baldwin, who was first elected in 2012 on a wave of progressive support, is one of 23 Democratic U.S. senators up for re-election this year. Her ability to retain support from voters in purple and red districts could determine the outcome of the crucial race.
Baldwin has maintained relationships and a support base among farmers and rural voters, even as the Democratic exodus from rural parts of the state has eroded Democratic margins in other statewide races. It’s a trend so persistent that “Trump-Tammy” voters are recognized as a constituency in Baldwin’s base — with the senator carrying 17 districts in her 2016 election that Trump won that same year.
“That’s absolutely Tammy’s bread and butter,” campaign spokeswoman Jackie Rosa said of Baldwin’s rural supporters.
During her campaign, Baldwin has toured farms and rural areas and formed a coalition, “Rural Leaders for Tammy,” to advocate in areas of the state that tend to be red. Issues like access to health care and hospital deserts and subsidies for farmers are core to her platform. She has emphasized populist-leaning bills, like one she co-authored with J.D. Vance, the Republican senator and vice presidential candidate, that would require goods and services developed in the U.S. with federal dollars to be made in the U.S. She has even taken on issues less popular with liberals, like removing gray wolves from Wisconsin’s endangered species list — a move supported by some farmers but criticized by environmental and conservation groups.
“She never shied away from going out into the country,” said Hans Breitenmoser, a dairy farmer from northern Wisconsin and a member of the Lincoln County Democratic Party. “I think her message resonated to some extent, because, you know, it’s not just nonsense — she’s trying to understand the issues, and she understands the issues on a level that some other politicians don’t.”
To win the seat, Hovde will have to undermine that support and hope for high turnout outside of heavily Democratic areas like Milwaukee and Dane County, which have seen historic turnout in recent elections.
Polls so far show a close race, with Baldwin holding a roughly seven-point lead over Hovde, according to a poll conducted in late July by Marquette University Law School. An earlier poll, conducted in June — before Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race — showed Hovde closer to Baldwin.
Hovde, whose campaign declined to be interviewed, is something of a blank slate. On his website, he highlights a few key issues — including immigration, foreign policy and health care — but doesn’t specify which policy solutions he supports. He’s earned Trump’s endorsement — a potential boost for the businessman — but hasn’t held public office and will have to overcome accusations of carpetbagging from the Baldwin campaign. That could be a challenge.
Although Hovde grew up in Madison and owns a lot of real estate there, Baldwin’s campaign has portrayed him as an out-of-touch rich man, pointing to his Laguna Beach, California, mansion and past status as one of Orange County’s most influential businessmen as evidence of his outsider status.
Baldwin has focused her campaign message on the fact that Hovde, with a net worth of more than $195 million, would be among the wealthiest members of the Senate if elected.
In recent political ads, Hovde has highlighted his multiple sclerosis diagnosis and the many international charities he manages, presenting a more personal image and presenting his wealth as a political asset.
But he sometimes handles the subject of his finances awkwardly. In numerous talk radio interviews, Hovde, who has criticized Democrats for persistently inflating consumer prices, acknowledged that inflation could be good for a wealthy businessman like himself.
“Look — inflation helps in the short to medium term, people who own assets — I’ve benefited from it, because my real estate values went up, my stock portfolio went up, the value of my private companies went up,” Hovde said in 2021, on a Wisconsin talk radio show hosted by Vicki McKenna, a popular right-wing radio personality. “But it hits hard for people who are on a fixed salary, or people who are on lower incomes.”
In a March episode of a right-wing podcast called The Truth with Lisa Boothe, he echoed a similar sentiment, criticizing the rise of inflation and its impact on the middle class, before noting that he himself had somewhat enjoyed the period of inflation. “For those who own assets, you know, I benefit from it because I own real estate, stocks, businesses. So yes, it makes me richer, but it’s a blow to, you know, 90% of Americans,” Hovde said.
According to his most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Hovde has loaned $13 million to his campaign, which has raised about $16 million to date. Baldwin’s campaign had raised $27 million as of the end of the most recent FEC reporting period.
Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race, with Kamala Harris at the top of the list, likely gave Baldwin a boost in the tight race.
Baldwin, who did not join calls for Biden to withdraw from the race, nevertheless declined to campaign with Biden when he visited Wisconsin. Hovde seized on Biden’s unpopularity and failed campaign to portray Baldwin as a close ally of Biden, even suggesting that she played a role in a Democratic Party conspiracy to hide Biden’s age from voters.
“How long has Tammy Baldwin been involved in the Biden cover-up?” an ad that aired in July asked.
The impact of the changing of the guard at the top of the Democratic Party in July also quickly led to a flood of funding for Democrats, including in Wisconsin.
“Everything I can measure is up,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler told Wisconsin Public Radio on Aug. 19. “Fundraising has skyrocketed, hundreds of thousands of dollars came in in the 48 hours after that big decision, and the contributions haven’t stopped.” Rosa, the Baldwin campaign spokesperson, noted that after the vice president announced her candidacy, she saw a “noticeable difference” in enthusiasm and crowd sizes at Baldwin’s events.
“But we’re always just very focused on our race,” Rosa said. “Of course, supporting Democrats across the ballot, because Wisconsin is going to decide the White House — we’re going to decide the Senate majority.”
