Navigate a fight over the Save Act. Avoid a government shutdown. Win two Senate seats to give Republicans control of the chamber in 2025.
Those are Mitch McConnell’s top priorities during his final two months as GOP leader, when Congress returns from summer recess next week.
McConnell, 82, will lead his caucus in the final stretch of his career amid a blistering presidential race and a fierce battle for Congress that could have implications for the political motivations of lawmakers beneath the U.S. Capitol dome.
The challenge that will consume most of this month is reaching an agreement to fund federal agencies by the Sept. 30 deadline. It’s an annual process that has become a stage for maximalist demands and theatrical challenges.
“The fight over government funding is always a challenging time for Republican leaders, but this time it will be especially daunting because of the stakes of an election year and House Republicans making unrealistic demands,” said Ron Bonjean, a former GOP adviser on Capitol Hill.
Some conservatives have already called for a government shutdown if Congress fails to pass the Save Act, a House-passed bill that requires proof of citizenship to vote.
“This is supported by Senator Mike Lee. This is even supported by Elon Musk. But I’ll tell you something else, you know who spoke out against this yesterday? Mitch McConnell,” said Jack Posobiec, a senior editor at the conservative publication Human Events.
Most evidence suggests that noncitizen voting is not a widespread problem and that in no state is it legal for a noncitizen to cast a ballot in a federal election. A study of the 2016 general election by the Brennan Center for Justice, which analyzed 23.5 million votes, found only 30 instances of noncitizen voting.
In Kentucky, the state constitution already provides that only residents who are U.S. citizens may vote in state elections.
McConnell has not yet publicly commented on the bill.
Still, conservatives have reacted bitterly to a report that McConnell aides privately argued that such legislation would be counterproductive for Republicans in a Democratic-controlled Senate, particularly because of the threat of a Senate shutdown.
Groups such as the political action committee Americans for Legal Immigration have encouraged their members to call McConnell’s office to “stop helping noncitizens and illegal immigrants vote by blocking the Save Act!”
The issue could pit McConnell against Speaker Mike Johnson, who has indicated he is open to attaching the measure to a government funding bill and who is under pressure from the far-right part of his party and from former President Donald Trump, who wanted to make illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign against Kamala Harris.
Conservatives in the House of Representatives want to force McConnell.
“Tie it to every spending we do and tell the Senate we shouldn’t fund a government that doesn’t check citizenship to vote. Period,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas wrote on X.
A bridge, veterinarians and food
What is at stake in the short-term financing package that must be approved before October?
In short, billions of dollars for veterans, nutrition programs for low-income people and the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, which collapsed after a container ship struck it last spring. McConnell has said the federal government will cover the “lion’s share” of the cost of replacing the artery.
The Department of Veterans Affairs faces a budget deficit of about $3 billion for fiscal year 2024 that must be resolved to pay disability, retirement and education compensation benefits to veterans. More than 117,000 Kentucky veterans are enrolled in the VA health care system.
The WIC program, which helps low-income women and their children with food, needs about $1.4 billion to remain solvent. It is part of the farm bill, which is usually renewed every five years.
The programs are all likely to be codified into a temporary funding package that would allow lawmakers to return to bigger issues late this year or early 2025, when McConnell’s successor takes charge.
But whether that future leader — likely Sen. John Thune of South Dakota or Sen. John Cornyn of Texas — can retain a majority in the Senate depends on just a few states that McConnell and his political apparatus will obsess over for the next 60 days.
McConnell’s Last Card
During his visits to the Commonwealth, McConnell likes to tell his constituents the obvious: he prefers a role as majority leader to minority leader.
But this round he is fighting for at least 51 seats to cement his legacy and, in a final show of force, cap a historic 17-year run at the top of his conference.
He needs a pickup truck with only two seats.
With Republicans all but certain to pick up a seat in West Virginia, McConnell has his eye on races in the red states of Montana and Ohio to create a majority, needing only one of those two.
The McConnell-affiliated Senate Leadership Fund PAC has set aside $57 million for advertising targeting Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester.
“We’ve got a good hand,” McConnell said last week in Owensboro. “We’re almost entirely focused on offense, and we’ve already pretty much won West Virginia. That puts us at 50, which is even.”
But in an interview with Erick Erickson in August, McConnell also saw the glass half empty, admitting, “I’ve seen us blow cards before.”
“He is one of the best fundraisers and strategic thinkers the party has had in recent history, and his parting gift to Republicans as he steps down from leadership will be a new majority in the next Congress,” said Bob Salera, a former counsel to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Still, McConnell surprised political observers when he refused to say who he thought would win the presidential election.
Speaking to an audience in Commerce Lexington, he said the battle between Harris and Trump will be a referendum on inflation and the southern border, but he stopped short of calling Trump the favorite.
McConnell, who supports Trump, has a turbulent history with the former president.
However, he has repeatedly said that his main focus for the 2024 presidential campaign will be winning a majority in the Senate, a move that could put a damper on who will take the White House in 2025.
‘Tens of billions’: What McConnell’s budget appropriations move would mean for Kentucky
