Most Californians say they’re likely to vote in the November election, but among those who aren’t sure, there’s a common reason: They don’t like the presidential candidates.
That finding comes from a poll released Friday by the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies, which asked 5,095 registered voters across California to consider their likelihood of voting in the Nov. 5 general election, which features a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump will take place. .
The poll, conducted for the nonprofit Evelyn and Walter Haas, Jr. Fund, found that about 78% of registered voters in California say they are likely to vote. The poll also found that intentions to vote vary widely by age, race and political affiliation – as do the reasons people say they are unlikely to vote.
Californians who consider themselves highly likely to vote said participating in the presidential election is the top reason. But among those who say they are less likely to vote, 40% cited not liking the presidential candidates as the reason. That rose to 55% among voters who have voted regularly in the past but are unsure whether they will vote this year.
Trump, a Republican, is now running as the first former president to be convicted of crimes after a jury found him guilty last month of falsifying records in a scheme to conceal payments to a porn actor who claimed to have had an affair . Biden, a Democrat, has faced criticism from some in his own party over his support for Israel in its war against Hamas, as well as his efforts to limit asylum at the border with Mexico. And both face questions about their ages: Trump is 77 and Biden is 81.
“The presidential election appears to be going both ways,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll. “It’s a motivating factor for those already on board and likely to vote, but it seems to be holding others back.”
Democrats and liberals were more likely than Republicans and conservatives to say their dislike of the presidential candidates is one reason they might not vote, the poll found.
More than 1 in 3 voters in the state said they were unlikely to vote because “special interests and big money control things,” and nearly 3 in 10 voters said they were not well informed about the issues and the candidates.
“It is clear that when it comes to our politics, faith is low and cynicism is high,” Jonathan Mehta Stein, executive director of California Common Cause, said in a statement.
California’s Nov. 5 ballot will be a long one, including the presidential election, a growing list of statewide ballot initiatives and several competitive legislative races that could determine which party controls Congress. It is expected that some races in purple areas will be won by razor-thin margins.
Overall, the poll found that the groups that appear most likely to vote are over 65: white voters, Republicans, homeowners and those with post-graduate degrees.
Among the groups in which the fewest people said they were likely to vote include voters who are young, black or Asian American, do not have a post-high school education or are naturalized citizens.
“It’s kind of what we’ve seen in past elections — that older voters, white voters and the more educated voters are the most likely to vote,” DiCamillo said.
The likelihood of voter participation varied widely by race, the poll found. Of white respondents, 90% said they were likely to vote. The share was 66% among black voters, 70% among Latino voters and 62% among Asian American voters.
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The foundation provided special funding to focus on Asian Americans, California’s fastest-growing demographic group, DiCamillo said.
The poll used voter list information to find voters who requested voting materials in Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese and then asked the poll questions in those languages. (The survey always asks questions in both English and Spanish.)
The results provide “a better picture of those constituencies than we have ever had in the past,” DiCamillo said, and suggest that there are wide disparities in the willingness to vote among Asian Americans.
Nearly 2 in 3 Vietnamese Americans called themselves very likely to vote. That percentage rose to 71% among other Asian American and Pacific Islander groups, including Filipino and Japanese Americans.
By comparison, just under half of Korean Americans and 54% of Chinese Americans said they were likely to vote.
The poll also asked registered voters in California what could make them more involved in the general election.
White and Asian American voters would most likely say their chances of voting would increase if they felt “ballot measures or candidates would advance my interests.”
Latinos would most likely say their chances of voting would increase if “election results were more reliable.” And Black voters were the most likely to say they would be more likely to vote if they had “access to an unbiased and trusted news source about the election.”
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Christian Arana, vice president of the Latino Community Foundation, said in a statement that investments in voter education are crucial to ensure voters “understand the meaning of their vote and the influence they have.”
Voters under 30 were four times more likely than voters over 65 to say that “getting more information about how and when to vote” could improve their changes in participation.
They were also much more likely to say that their voting behavior could change if voting were easier, or if they got help from “a person or group I trust to help me better understand the issues and the candidates.”
DiCamillo warned that 78% of respondents rate themselves as highly likely to vote, which does not mean a 78% turnout is predicted. Most voters have good intentions when it comes to voting, he said, “but they probably overestimate it.”
During the 2020 presidential election, more than 80% of registered voters cast ballots in California, the highest percentage since 1976.
The survey was conducted from May 29 to June 4 in five languages. The margin of error for the total sample of registered voters was estimated at plus or minus 2 percentage points, and could be higher for subgroups.
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
