Campaigns – and candidates – matter.
That’s why Kamala Harris could beat Donald Trump despite the national mood and an issue that will help pave the way for the former president’s comeback from political disgrace.
But the switch to Harris as the Democratic nominee was just enough to energize Democrats and refocus attention on Trump and the controversies that have surrounded him over the past nine and a half years.
The vice president’s paid media campaign, along with that of her allies, has been narrowly focused on two themes: positioning Harris as a champion of the middle class (and Trump as an advocate for himself and other wealthy people), and protecting abortion rights. That helps Harris close the gap with Trump on tackling voters’ No. 1 problem: the economy. And abortion rights and Trump’s history of misogynistic statements are fueling a historic gender divide.
Harris’ campaign is also far superior to Trump’s in terms of campaign mechanics. Harris and her allies have generally had an advantage on the airwaves, although Trump has closed the gap in recent weeks. But what could really help Harris is the Trump campaign’s decision to outsource the grassroots game to groups led by media personalities and eccentric billionaires, largely out of financial necessity due to slow small donations and wasteful spending on legal bills.
Harris is unlikely to win Iowa as a shocking Des Moines Register poll on election night suggested. But the survey is a sign that it is stronger than it seems in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — where Democrats’ gubernatorial candidates all won decisively two years ago — thanks to sustained support among seniors and white voters, both of whom are overrepresented in the Rust Belt. And those states alone, combined with the electoral vote from Iowa’s bordering Omaha, Nebraska, congressional district, would be enough to give her a majority in the Electoral College.
The problems
From the moment she entered the race, Harris and her allies tried to portray Trump as only for himself and his wealthy friends. The vast majority of ads run in recent weeks by Future Forward, the highest-spending super PAC, hit this theme hard, with videos of Trump telling major donors, “You’re rich as hell… .and we’re going to give you money for tax cuts.”
That campaign allowed Harris to close the gap on which candidate would do a better job tackling the economy by up to six points, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.
That doesn’t mean she will win over voters for whom the economy is most important. But that’s not necessary, because Biden didn’t do that four years ago. Of the 27 percent of voters in 2020 who chose the economy and jobs as their top issue, Trump won them over Joe Biden, 80 percent to 19 percent, according to AP Votecast.
Her strongest issue is abortion. Harris enters the election with a 16-point lead on abortion — and an even more impressive advantage among voters for whom this is their most important issue. After Dobbs, Abortion has been a galvanizing issue in interstate battles for more than two years, even as voters who gave Republicans the House majority in 2022 in blue state districts of California and New York have mostly shrugged it off.
And Trump’s reluctance to concede after his 2020 defeat, culminating on Jan. 6, looms large for many voters, including some who supported him in previous elections. While not a staple of Harris’ paid media campaign, ending the race with the unmistakable symbolism of a speech on the Ellipse reinforced that message for voters who felt uneasy about Trump’s behavior four years ago.
The coalitions
When Trump won in 2016, he dismantled the Obama-era link between non-college white voters and voters of color. Four years later, Biden won back just enough white workers to flip the script.
But Harris’ coalition is different. Trump’s gains among voters of color appear real. That has meant that Harris has had to delve into traditionally Republican voters, such as whites and older voters.
This was clear before the Iowa poll: the legendary Ron Brownstein, currently a senior analyst for CNN, has pointed out Harris’s perhaps surprisingly durable numbers (and Biden’s before her) among white voters.
But Harris’s 19-point lead among seniors in the Iowa poll — and 2-to-1 advantage among women over 65 in Iowa — is a sign of her remarkable strength within a traditionally Republican voting bloc and a signal of the yawning gender gap. And Harris’ continued appeals to Republican voters — for example, campaigning with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) — are intended to amplify that message.
The map
If months of handicapping hold true, the election will come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that’s Harris’ most likely path to victory — one that doesn’t even require her to wait for Arizona and Nevada to count their late ballots.
As with Biden earlier this year, polls have shown Harris’ strength among white voters, especially those in northern states. Therefore, even as national polls show a tie on the eve of the election, her path has remained clear, albeit difficult.
Thanks to a slight improvement over 2020 among black voters, Trump is likely to languish a bit in those states’ big cities — Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee — but Harris expects that won’t be enough. The three states have come together in every election since 1992, and Harris’ surest path to victory is if they do so again this year.
The Sun Belt states have long looked more challenging for Harris. But polls from The New York Times and Siena College released Sunday showed her consolidating African-American support in the two battleground states where black voters play the biggest role: Georgia and North Carolina. That could open a new path to an Electoral College majority for the vice president.
