This is what we can see Russian warships and planes doing in new satellite images of Syria amid regime change

• The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has raised questions about Russia’s future in Syria.

• Russia has long had a military footprint at two major bases in the country.

• New satellite images show what Moscow’s warships and planes are doing now.

Newly captured satellite images show what the Russian army is doing in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime.

The images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider show that Russian aircraft are still present at Khmeimim Air Base, but Moscow’s warships are no longer based at the nearby naval base in Tartus.

Russia supported Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar Assad, in his brutal civil war. But Moscow’s military footprint in the country was thrown into uncertainty this weekend after rebels captured Damascus and ousted Assad following a swift offensive that lasted just days. Assad has since fled to Moscow.

The Kremlin relies heavily on its bases in Syria to project its power, and losing them would be a major setback, not something Russia needs during the war in Ukraine. Tartus is Russia’s most important foreign naval base, providing the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Meanwhile, Moscow uses Khmeimim to transport military forces in and out of Africa.

A satellite image captured on Monday shows Russian planes, helicopters and military equipment at the Khmeimim air base near the coastal city of Latakia. Much activity was observed at the adjacent Bassel Al-Assad civilian international airport.

It is currently unclear whether the assets have already left and whether Russia will maintain its position on this base.

Images captured on Tuesday show Russian warships missing from their naval base in Tartus, a port city on the Mediterranean Sea. At least two frigates were spotted several kilometers offshore.

Five Russian surface ships – three frigates and two oil tankers – and a submarine were spotted at the Tartus base earlier this week, but they had left the facility on Monday and were still gone the next day.

It is unclear if and when the warships will return to port; their presence in the Mediterranean could be a security reason due to all the uncertainty on land, rather than a complete evacuation from Tartus.

The new images come amid questions about Russia’s future control over the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, which the country has held for years. The country’s Defense Ministry has not publicly announced any major changes to armed forces posts.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said Moscow was withdrawing from its bases and evacuating its troops. BI could not independently confirm this.

The Kremlin said it is taking steps to ensure the security of its bases through talks with Syria’s new leadership as details of the transition government become clearer. Russian state media have said rebels control the province where the facilities are located.

If Russia fails to maintain access to these bases, it could spell trouble for Moscow in the region.

Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, wrote in an assessment on Monday that “the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean, NATO’s southern flank, and operating in Africa.”

Read the original article on Business Insider