Three possible outcomes of Aiyuk’s contract impasse with the 49ers originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
Does it make sense for the 49ers to spend another $30 million (or somewhere around that) annually on a wide receiver?
That’s what San Francisco will have to determine if second-team All-Pro receiver Brandon Aiyuk skips the team’s mandatory minicamp to make an impact on landing a new contract in line with the top players at his position.
Aiyuk is under contract for the upcoming 2024 NFL season at a cost of $14.1 million. His next contract could reward him with an average salary of twice that amount. That’s why Aiyuk stayed away from the 49ers’ offseason program, including the team’s mandatory minicamp, which started Tuesday.
Aiyuk led the 49ers the past two seasons, totaling 153 receptions for 2,357 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is now considered one of the best receivers in the NFL.
But the 49ers already have Deebo Samuel. And Samuel and Jauan Jennings are under contract for the next two seasons.
In addition, first-round draft pick Ricky Pearsall will receive a four-year contract with the club option for a fifth season.
The going rate for a wide receiver of Aiyuk’s stature is $30 million per season. But the 49ers must weigh whether it makes sense for them at this point to pay the price to keep Aiyuk on a long-term contract.
Here are the 49ers’ three options for dealing with the Aiyuk situation:
1, Contract extension
The 49ers have signed lucrative, long-term contract extensions with star players in each of the previous four years.
They made deals with tight end George Kittle, linebacker Fred Warner, Samuel and defenseman Nick Bosa. It’s easy to assume the same pattern will hold true and Aiyuk will get his contract sometime around the start of training camp or the regular season.
But that’s certainly not a slam dunk.
What makes this a little more intriguing is that the 49ers have already paid Samuel, and general manager John Lynch will have to determine if it makes sense to spend that much money on two receivers.
And . . . If the 49ers pay Aiyuk the going rate, does that mean they can’t keep Samuel this season?
At some point, the 49ers will have to part ways with some of their highest-paid players — or refuse to pay others the market rate. That’s especially true with quarterback Brock Purdy getting a contract next season that could pay him in the range of $50 million per year.
2, Complete the season
Aiyuk is again under contract for next season. If they don’t meet his contract, he will be forced to play under his existing contract this season, which would pay him more than his previous four seasons combined.
But Aiyuk would understandably be upset if the 49ers refused to compensate him at the level of other receiver contracts in the NFL.
If Aiyuk plays on his current contract this season, the 49ers would have the opportunity to reassess their position at the end of the season and attempt to work out a long-term deal.
One option would be for the 49ers to place the franchise tag on Aiyuk to prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent. At that point, the 49ers will know if they can work out a long-term contract.
If they don’t believe they can reach an agreement, they could trade him before the 2025 NFL Draft to a team willing to pay a high price to the 49ers and meet Aiyuk’s contract demands.
3, Trade it now
There was trade talk about Aiyuk this offseason. But Lynch stopped answering calls about Aiyuk after the first day of the draft, when the 49ers selected Pearsall with the No. 31 overall selection.
Now, it doesn’t make much sense for the 49ers to negotiate with Aiyuk because there is no one they could add who could make up for his absence this season.
The 49ers are a better team with Aiyuk and they need to achieve their goal of a Super Bowl title.
The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, November 5, or after the 49ers’ game eight.
If the team performs strongly, they wouldn’t trade Aiyuk at that point. But if the season has fallen off the rails, the 49ers might be willing to deal him at that point.
Trading Aiyuk between now and this season’s deadline seems like the 49ers’ least likely option.
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