Thursday Night Football: Rams vs. 49ers fantasy football analysis

You can watch Thursday Night Football: Rams vs. Watch 49ers at 8:20 PM ET/5:20 PM PT on Amazon Prime Video.

This is it, my fellow fantasy football heads – the first Thursday Night Football game of the fantasy playoffs. If you danced, congratulations; if not, it’s time to do some studying for next season.

Luckily, the first game of this all-important week is shaping up to be a doozy. Both the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers have life in the NFC playoff race, but both are one loss away from going sideways. With all the fantasy relevant names on both sides, hopefully we get a barn burner.

Let’s get to the story of the tape.

Maybe the answer to the 49ers’ backfield problems is…

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Yes, I said it. Just give it more carriers and designed piping. Let’s get Isaac Guerendo fully healed (he reportedly plans to play tonight) and stop trying Patrick Taylor Jr. to make it come true. The people are longing for more Samuel rushes!

See that 92 there on the player card? These are emergency yards. That’s right, Samuel has just 92 rushing yards this season, 11 games played – not to mention just one rushing TD.

For reference, he rushed for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 2021, when he finished as the overall WR2 in fantasy.

What gives? Is Deebo hurt? Are the 49ers trying to force him into a more traditional WR role?

I don’t understand. The moment both CMC and Elijah Mitchell went down, I expected those cheat code, exotic rush packs to be unleashed for Deebo. I was completely wrong.

Samuel recently posted on social media about his frustrations at not being given the ball again (he has since deleted it). So maybe we’ll see a squeaky wheel game tonight. Or maybe we’ll get his fifth straight game under five fantasy points.

Since Guerendo looks like he’ll perform well tonight (and looked great as a starter last week), Samuel is more of a flex option for me this week than an automatic start. But I’ll be keeping a close eye on him tonight to see if his advantage comes through his dual-threat ability, which may not see Guerendo playing a full workload of less than 100 percent. And hey, at least Samuel’s quarterback is on his side.

And for those of you on the fence about starting Guerendo, here’s Andy Behrens’ take from today’s Get to the Points newsletter:

This game could further cement Jauan Jennings as a must-start player during the fantasy playoffs

Getting wide receivers off the waiver wire during fantasy football season is mostly a matter of streaming. Matchup-based additions are quite common; so rarely do we pick up a wide receiver who ends up being a weekly starter in fantasy lineups, especially if that receiver isn’t a rookie.

And yet here we are, with Jauan Jennings as one of the waiver heroes of 2024.

Jennings was undrafted in most leagues, but he is currently WR18 in half-PPR (WR14 in PPG).

How did we get here? Well, a perfect storm of things had to happen for Jennings to get this opportunity. The loss of Brandon Aiyuk for the season certainly played a role, as did the 49ers’ backfield injuries and minor injuries suffered during the season by the likes of Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle. That’s been a common theme throughout Jennings’ career; when his number is called, he delivers.

Jennings has always been considered a distant fourth in the 49ers’ offensive weapons hierarchy, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the talent to be higher on that list. After all, we see it now. Jennings hasn’t scored fewer than 6 fantasy points since Week 6, and he hasn’t racked up fewer than 5 targets since Week 5. He has gone from being just a third-down chain mover to a random red zone threat.

He IS currently the 49ers’ WR1.

Lest we forget, Jennings came into his own in Week 3 despite injury and delivered a truly monstrous 41-point performance — those are Ja’Marr Chase’s numbers.

His opponent in week 5? These same Aries.

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I highly doubt Sean McVay has forgotten Jennings’ 11-175-3 outburst against his team, but even with extra defensive attention placed on him, Jennings is good enough to produce, especially since Kyle Shanahan gets him the ball has delivered. Jennings starts tonight with full confidence.

Are we getting a vintage Cooper Kupp inflatable game?

Much has been made about Puka Nacua’s recent production – as it should be. Nacua looked like a machine and also produced catches and highlight-reel stats. It may not be said by the Los Angeles Rams team itself, but it has become clear to any observer watching with a critical eye: Puka Nacua is now the Rams’ WR1, not Cooper Kupp.

But maybe that’s not a bad thing.

Sure, Nacua gets all the headlines, but outside of a lousy performance against the Saints in Week 13, Kupp is performing like a top-tier WR2 with WR1 upside. He posted a high 25.60 fantasy points in Week 11, his highest total of the season, and since Week 8 he has scored 10+ fantasy points in every game except that Saints matchup (for what it’s worth, that Saints game was more about the Rams’ run game and defense dominating their opponent).

Sure, maybe Kupp isn’t inhaling targets like he has in the past with Nacua around, but it’s not like he’s been left to his own devices; during that aforementioned number of matches, Kupp averaged 10.8 goals per match, compared to Nacua’s 10.14. McVay is planning touches with both of his elite wideouts, moving them around the formation. And hey, maybe Nacua demanding extra defensive attention isn’t the worst thing in the world; leaving more open lanes for Kupp.

You’d have to be incredibly, wonderfully deep at wideout to even consider benching Kupp in what is essentially a must-win game for both teams.