The season is halfway through, so let’s take a quick look at how the upcoming free agents fared before we hit the All-Star break in two weeks. Some players have moved up the list significantly, while a few new players have joined the top 25 and others have fallen off the list altogether.
Note: Whenever you see a number, a slash, and another number, that’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For example, the abbreviation for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million deal would be “11/330.”
The ages stated are valid for the 2025 season.
Soto has an on-base percentage of .495 since June 1. He and Mookie Betts are the only qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts. Only six batters have more long balls than Soto. The icing on the cake? Soto’s outfield defense, which was abysmal last season, has rated near league average by advanced metrics. Unless he gets space jammed, he’ll be the best free agent in the league.
3. Max Fried, Braves SP, age 31
Both aces continued to roll in June and are still solid 1a and 1b pitchers for this free agent class. You could argue that Fried is better than Burnes because (1) Fried strikes out more batters and (2) he throws left-handed. But most people in the game would put the O’s ace at the top because (1) he has a track record of reliability and (2) he walks fewer batters than Fried.
Bregman started the year in Antarctica, but has picked things up over the past month and a half as the Astros have clawed their way back into the playoffs. Adames snapped an 0-for-27 skid with three hits on Monday, but other than that cold spell, he’s generally maintained his level of play. You could make an argument for one of these players over the other. Adames plays a premium position, but doesn’t have a stellar offensive resume like Bregman.
6. Ha-Seong Kim (opt-out), Padres IF, age 29
Kim leapfrogs Bellinger and Alonso on our list thanks to his consistent offensive production. The Korean shortstop has an even strikeout-to-walk ratio dating back to May 1. That on-base ability combined with great infield defense and his unique power/speed combo make Kim an incredibly valuable player.
Alonso was a key part of New York’s volcanic June, posting an .868 OPS and six dingers. Unfortunately, the Polar Bear is still working against the reality of his profile as a right-handed hitter at first base. He won’t get more than the 6/162 that Freddie Freeman got unless he goes all out in the second half of the season.
The switch-hitting Santander has been on the road since June 1; his 13 homers in that span are tied for the most in baseball with Shohei Ohtani. He offers virtually no value on defense or on the basepaths, but there are few offensive players with that kind of track record on either end of the scale. He makes money with every additional homer.
It’s been a disappointing 2024 so far for Bellinger, who has completely rebuilt his game in 2023 from a big-swinging power threat to a more contact-oriented hitter. But his overall profile has taken a step back this year, with more whiffs and less-than-optimal launch angles weighing on his offensive numbers. Bellinger’s stellar outfield defense and relative youth still give him a high floor.
Hernández has continued to rake in the ground and should be an All-Star. He drops down a spot because Santander is two years younger and has been so, so good. Expect a team to offer Teo a multi-year deal.
Consistency is Christian Walker and Christian Walker is consistency. There’s not much more to say about the 34-year-old who continues to hit despite the Diamondbacks’ slow season.
Lowe missed most of April and May with an oblique issue, but has been his typical low-average, high-power self since returning. Injuries have limited Lowe since his sensational 2021 season, when he hit 31 homers and finished 10th in AL MVP voting. He’s still an everyday second baseman approaching 30, so there’s value there.
13. Tyler O’Neill, Red Sox OF, 30 years old
Popeye lives! O’Neill had a brief IL stint in late May with a knee issue, but returned quickly and spent most of June building a storm. He has the 16th-highest OPS in baseball this season, behind a who’s who of all-world sluggers. The injury history is a real red flag, and he’s still striking out a lot, but there aren’t many hitters with that kind of power potential.
He should have been ranked first, that’s a miss on my part, but there was legitimate reason to doubt Profar’s explosive start. The Curacao native was once a prospect but was a mediocre offensive player for much of his career. He was downright awful last year, despite playing his home games at Coors Field. But he’s maintained his breakthrough and was selected to start the All-Star Game this week. He’ll turn 32 this winter with just one year of elite performance, but he’s certainly on track to get a multi-year deal now.
Flaherty, perhaps the American League’s most surprising pitching breakout, has maintained his output, but his most recent start was skipped due to back problems. If healthy, Flaherty should be a big trade chip for the underwhelming Tigers and eventually an attractive free agent pitching option who secures a multi-year deal.
Martinez missed most of April after a back problem and a late signing slowed his buildup, but he’s been excellent for the Mets since returning. No team is going to offer a 37-year-old DH a multi-year contract, but Martinez will continue to receive lucrative one-year deals until he proves he no longer deserves them.
17. Jordan Montgomery (opt-out), Diamondbacks SP, age 32
18. Blake Snell (opt-out), Giants SP, age 32
Injuries and ineffectiveness have hampered the two late-signed Scott Boras prospects, who appear to be suffering from the difficulties of not having a typical Spring Training start. At this point, it would be surprising to see either of them opt out of their current contracts.
Torres has been statistically better the last six weeks, but was still benched by Yankees captain Aaron Boone last week after some lackluster play. He’s always been a low-energy player, but it’s hard to get excited about Torres’ free-agent profile right now. That’s a shame, given his talent and age.
Kikuchi has really struggled in the past month, posting a 5.73 ERA in his last seven starts. If Toronto decides to sell, he’ll be a relatively popular trade partner, but unless he can turn around production, he’s looking at a one-year deal this winter.
Goldy has gotten better now that the Cardinals are back in the playoff mix, but there’s no doubt he’s not the hitter he once was. I rate him well below JD Martinez of the same age, if only because Martinez has a track record at his advanced age. With Goldschmidt, it’s unclear how quickly the decline will continue. Still, it’s good to see him improving.
Scott has been one of the game’s most dominant relief pitchers for the past year and a half. In 114 innings over that span, he has a 2.05 ERA in 109 appearances with 142 strikeouts. He throws left-handed and doesn’t turn 30 until July 22. Some club that’s in the running is going to give Scott a big buck.
23. Clay Holmes, Yankees RP, age 32
It’s been a bumpy month for Holmes, who posted a 5.00-plus ERA in June. That’s always a possibility for a contact-oriented closer like Holmes. He looked much better this week against Cincinnati, but the sinkerballer is no longer the consensus top reliever on the market.
Hoffman is essentially the right-handed version of Scott, only a few years older. Since the start of last year, the top-prospect starter-turned-reliever has a 1.93 ERA in 91 innings with 115 strikeouts. He likes life in Philadelphia, but could get a firmer, multi-year offer from another club.
The change of scenery hasn’t led to an offensive resurgence for the bombastic outfielder. It hasn’t gotten embarrassingly bad yet, but Verdugo is honestly just not a very dynamic hitter. He’s an average player in the league.
Who fell out of the 25?
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Danny Jansen, Blue Jays C, 30 years: The Blue Jays’ backstop is still the best option in a very weak catching market, but he’s gotten so bad that he’s dropped out of the Top 25.
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Rhys Hoskins, Brewers 1B, age 32: The Brewers first baseman missed a few weeks in May with a hamstring injury and has been terrible at the plate since returning. He could opt into the second year of his current contract.
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Walker Buehler, Dodgers SP, age 30: The Dodgers starter was abysmal and out of shape in his first eight starts this season after returning from Tommy John before hitting the IL in late June with a hip issue. He has a stellar track record, but teams will likely need to see some level of production before offering him a firm deal. A return to the Dodgers on a one-year cushion seems more likely.
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Shane Bieber, Guardians SP, 30 years: He won’t pitch this year as he recovers from Tommy John, so it’s probably best to put him on the back burner until he’s back.
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Max Kepler, Twins OF, 32 years: The Twins outfielder started out strong, but has looked terrible lately. Most concerning is that his athleticism appears to be declining as he inches closer to 30. It smells like a one-year deal here.
