The consensus among rival executives and evaluators is that the Mets’ most valuable trade chip by far on Thursday is their starting pitcher. Luis Severino.
“Severino gives you an average prospect,” said a senior American League executive.
The case of the first baseman Pete Alonsohowever, is more complex.
The Mets haven’t decided to become trade deadline sellers yet. As we previously reported, they would prefer to avoid this approach for the second consecutive season. But if it’s closer Edwin Diaz doesn’t return to form, it’s hard to see a path to contention.
While the Mets hope Diaz, activated from the injured list on Thursday, can regain his – and manager’s – confidence Carlos Mendoza sees signs he will – rival evaluators remain concerned he is not fully healthy.
Diaz missed all of last season after suffering a knee injury during the World Baseball Classic. He throws with reduced velocity and command, has a 5.40 ERA and has blown four saves in nine chances. He went on the injured list on May 29 with a right shoulder impingement.
One reviewer stated that Diaz this year was “completely poor, like he was trying to protect the knee.”
Diaz says he is healthy.
In a recent conversation with Diaz, Mendoza felt like the Mets closer seemed much more confident than when he was in the middle of his slump in May. With few if any better options, Mendoza will immediately restore Diaz to the closer role.
If Diaz succeeds, it’s easier to imagine the Mets hanging around in the Wild Card race. If he doesn’t, they may find, albeit reluctantly, that selling makes more sense.
Of the players with expiring contracts the Mets could sell, Severino stands out for his appeal to other teams.
Others, like Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino And JD Martinez are expected to yield only modest returns.
Alonso’s case divides baseball people. Many note that the rental market for right-handed sluggers is generally not robust, hence the expectation of smaller returns for Martinez.
“You won’t get much for Alonso on a rental basis unless there is a bidding war,” said one evaluator.
Another veteran manager said, “Alonso might get you someone’s prospect with a score of 5-10. Not one to be a stud.”
“I don’t agree with that,” said one high-ranking AL executive. “Pete could be the difference between us making the play-offs or not. He’s better than Arraez [Luis Arraez, for whom Miami acquired reliever Woo-Suk Go and three prospects from an aggressive Padres team].”
If the first two quotes are correct, it would make more sense for the Mets to retain Alonso until he hits free agency at the end of the season. Why put a fan base through a traumatic trade just to get a lower league player who may or may not become a major league player?
But if the third executive is right and teams see Alonso as a difference-maker, the Mets will have to take that into account. It will be up to the president of baseball operations David Sterns and his group to gauge his worth and proceed accordingly.
