Chances continue to increase that a tropical storm or tropical depression could form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by midweek, the National Hurricane Center said, as forecasters watch for an upcoming disturbance that could develop northeast of the central Bahamas . could approach the southern U.S. East Coast, possibly including Florida, on Thursday or Friday.
The first named storm to form in 2024 would be Alberto.
The Gulf of Mexico system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf Coast. As of 8 a.m. Monday morning, the chance of development over the next two to seven days had increased to 70%.
Storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the system could bring heavy rain and potential flooding to parts of southern Mexico and Central America.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will survey the system on Monday.
Meanwhile, the system that could form near the Bahamas has been given a 30% chance of developing over the next seven days a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas, after which slow development is possible while it system moves westward or west-northwestward. . Forecasters said Monday it could approach the southern U.S. East Coast on Thursday or Friday.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual outlook for May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 42 miles per hour, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has fourteen named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has predicted four to seven major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher hurricanes, by 2024.
Experts from Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the US East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say the record warm water temperatures now covering much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into the peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. At the beginning of June, the tropical Atlantic Ocean was as hot as in mid-August, the height of the hurricane season.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
Sun Sentinel writers Robin Webb and Bill Kearney contributed to this report.
