Tropical Storm Beryl, which formed late Friday, is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2024 season this weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.
As of 11:00 p.m. Friday, Beryl was located 1,100 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 19 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds were 40 miles per hour, and tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 45 miles from the center.
“Development in this far east in late June is unusual,” hurricane center forecasters said. “In fact, only a few storms in history have formed this early in the year over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”
Beryl is not expected to hit South Florida.
Meanwhile, the hurricane center is monitoring two other systems.
A tropical wave could develop in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred kilometers south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, but is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Slow development of this system is possible next week as it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph (25 to 32 km/h), forecasters said.
There is a 40% chance of this developing in the next seven days.
A tropical wave that was already moving across the Caribbean and moving west toward Mexico has also weakened, despite the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms.
“The disturbance is expected to move westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, after which some development will be possible,” forecasters said.
At that point, as the system moves toward central Mexico, it could develop into a tropical depression.
Heavy rain is still expected in parts of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
There is a 40% chance of this forming in the next seven days.
The next named storm will be Chris.
The western Gulf of Mexico last week generated the first tropical storm of the 2024 season. The system, named Alberto, made landfall in Mexico, 250 miles south of the US border, but sent storm surges and flooding to places 500 miles away in Louisiana .
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual outlook for May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85 percent chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 43 mph (69 kph) and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has predicted four to seven major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher hurricanes, by 2024.
Experts from Colorado State University said in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Weather forecasters say the record warm water temperatures now blanketing much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue through the August-October hurricane season. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic Ocean was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August—hurricane season.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
