Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean on Thursday and became the 18th called storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The system, previously called Tropical Depression 19, developed in the western Caribbean earlier this week and intensified as we traveled west toward Central America.

Sara has packed winds of 40 miles per hour and is about 50 miles northeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras border, heading west, the National Hurricane Center said in a 1 p.m. ET update. A weather system is considered a tropical storm if its wind speed increases to a minimum of 39 km/h.

The storm is expected to linger in the Caribbean through the weekend and slowly move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. After that the path is less clear. CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan said many of the models now have it dissipating either after it enters the Gulf of Mexico or over Mexico, but several still have it focused on Florida.

“Florida residents should closely monitor forecast updates as they come in,” Nolan advised.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with activity typically peaking between mid-August and mid-October. An average season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which predicted the 2024 season would produce “above average” numbers.

What is the expected path of Tropical Storm Sara?

Tropical Storm Sara could bring potentially catastrophic rainfall to parts of Central America. Forecasters warned that between 30 and 50 centimeters of heavy rain is possible in Honduras early next week, with up to 80 centimeters of heavy rain possible in some places.

Forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said they expected “life-threatening” flash flooding to hit northern Honduras and last through the weekend. The hurricane center also warned of potentially disastrous mudslides caused by the storm, especially in the mountainous region along and near Sierra La Esperanza on the country’s northeastern coast. They estimated these conditions would last through the weekend.

The rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua are likely to receive between 2 and 4 inches of rain as the storm moves through that area, but up to 6 inches is possible.

Governments across Central America have issued several warnings and warnings as people brace for the fallout from Sara. Large parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are under a hurricane watch or tropical storm warning, the hurricane center said.

Will Tropical Storm Sara become a hurricane?

It remains to be seen whether Sara will strengthen into a hurricane by the time it is expected to pass close to Honduras’ east coast on Friday or Saturday, but forecasters say the storm will likely be “close to or at hurricane strength” when it does.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach at least 75 mph, making it a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Forecasters also warned residents of Belize and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to be prepared for the potential impact of Sara early next week.

Will Tropical Storm Sara Hit Florida?

After moving into the Gulf of Mexico, some forecast models suggested the storm could make a right turn and head toward Florida late next week, although Nolan noted that conditions could change quickly. Other models might see the storm reach the central Gulf and possibly dissipate.

Hurricane hunters flew into the area Thursday to examine the strength and structure of the developing weather system.

Prediction models take into account current environmental factors and historical data to calculate ‘spaghetti plots’ of where systems might track. Each model uses different calculations, and the prediction track is a result of the consensus of those models.

“It is too early to determine what impacts the system could have on parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba, by mid-next week,” the hurricane center said Thursday. “Residents in these areas should check forecast updates regularly.”

contributed to this report.