(Bloomberg) — Canada’s Conservative Party has won a special election in a downtown Toronto district, dealing a major blow to the prime minister Justin Trudeau‘s Liberal Party ahead of a national vote expected next year.
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Voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s chosen Conservative candidate Don Stewart in the House of Commons, flipping a seat that has voted Liberal in every election since 1993. Stewart won 42% of the vote, according to preliminary data from Elections Canada, beating Liberal candidate Leslie Church, who had just over 40%.
While the result does not change the balance of power in Ottawa, it was widely seen as an important litmus test for Trudeau. Monday’s loss suggests that even traditional strongholds may be in jeopardy as Trudeau’s popularity wanes and the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievrerise in the polls.
The Liberals won the seat in the 2021 election by more than 10,000 votes.
“This changes everything for the Liberals and for the Prime Minister,” Scott Reid, a former aide to former Prime Minister Paul Martin, said on the social media platform X. “If St. Paul’s is unsafe, there is no such thing as safe. ”
The loss is likely to increase pressure on the embattled prime minister to step aside before the next election. The Liberals have consistently scored big victories in Canada’s largest city, keeping the party in power since 2015. But Poilievre’s Conservatives have a double-digit lead in the polls and would be on course to win a majority government if these numbers hold in a national vote.
The next elections will take place in October 2025, but the date could be moved.
The Conservatives ran a campaign largely focused on the Liberals’ economic performance. Canada’s economy is growing at a sluggish pace, housing is unaffordable for many and high interest rates continue to frustrate borrowers.
The party also focused on the war between Israel and Hamas and tried to win support from the Jewish population that makes up about 11% of the district. Conservatives have repeatedly accused Trudeau of being too soft on Israel and failing to combat anti-Semitism at home.
Church held the lead for most of the night, but Stewart pulled ahead as ballot counting continued into the early morning hours.
Toronto-St. Paul’s was previously owned by Carolyn Bennett, a Liberal party stalwart and former minister who stepped aside to become Canada’s ambassador to Denmark.
–With help from Jacob Lorinc and Doug Alexander.
(Updates with additional analyst commentary in fourth paragraph)
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