Donald Trump’s campaign acknowledges it could lose in November if the election is decided on “vibes” and “energy,” while Kamala Harris continues to ride the wave of momentum alongside her recently announced running mate Tim Walz, according to people close to the former president.
The concerns have also created divisions within Trumpworld, with some Maga allies criticizing Trump’s political advisers for running a campaign that is too structurally flawed to mount a ground campaign in swing states.
Trump’s campaign has developed a strategy to push back, and is expected to position Harris’ campaign as the most progressive. They want to refocus the political message on their tenure and away from reporting on Harris’ extraordinary enthusiasm among voters.
Trump’s campaign wants to hold Harris responsible in the eyes of voters for the influx of migrants and her role as “border czar,” allowing migrants to spread across the country, in part to relieve pressure on border states.
That ties into their other strategy of pulling off a “Willie Horton” attack from the old Republican playbook, by suggesting on social media and in television ads that Harris was directly responsible for any crimes some of the migrants committed.
Walz’s strategy now is to say that he has pursued progressive policies as governor of Minnesota, focusing on his support for medical care for transgender children, the passage of sweeping climate change legislation and the enshrinement of abortion rights.
The campaign was also keen to portray Walz as someone who falsified his military record. He has vaguely alluded to serving in Iraq, though he left the Army before his unit deployed. This was a style of attack Trump’s current campaign manager Chris LaCivita once used against John Kerry in the episode “Swift Boat.”
The effort to focus on Harris and Walz’s administrative records offers a window into the Trump campaign knowing it must avoid a vibes-based election at all costs, the people said. The Trump campaign knows that running on the national vote won’t work against Harris’ stunning momentum since she entered the race the way it did with Biden.
Weeks before Biden eventually withdrew, the biggest fear in Trump’s world was that Biden’s withdrawal would give a successor a huge boost. And for that reason, Trump himself refrained from criticizing Biden, even as top Democrats pressured him to drop out of the race.
The momentum hunch has proven true, and deeply problematic for the Trump campaign, which is struggling to get into the news cycle. It’s the first time Trump has largely lost control of the media narrative — and with it his ability to destroy the Harris ticket — since facing impeachment in 2023.
But it remains unclear whether Trump’s offensive strategies will work, at least in the coming weeks, as there appears to be no end in sight to Harris’ extended honeymoon period. That’s an important factor, because the longer the honeymoon period lasts, the less time Trump has to define Harris negatively.
Trump’s campaign may well consider August a failure, one of the people noted. Walz could still dominate media attention next week, and Harris is expected to receive a flood of support at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago the following week.
The week following the conference may also be shorter in terms of news, as the country heads into the Labor Day weekend.
Moreover, the attacks themselves are less tailored than those on Biden and in many ways easily rebutted by Harris’ team.
For example, if Harris is charged with migrant crimes, she is expected to say she is a former prosecutor taking on a convicted felon, drawing unwanted attention to Trump’s recent conviction in New York for falsifying corporate records to influence the 2016 election.
And when pressed about the situation in Iraq, Walz can make an even more painful point: Trump didn’t serve in Vietnam because of his bony protrusions.
More broadly, Trump’s other lines of attack against Harris don’t seem to be having the same effect as his lines against Biden. Trump spent some time testing out the nickname “Cacklin’ Kamala” to make her seem unserious because of her laugh, but he’s recently started trying “Kamabla” — a sign he wasn’t convinced by his first option.
