This week on the prediction markets:
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Courting crypto voters appears to have boosted Trump’s chances.
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Doug Burgum is still behind Tim Scott for Republican vice president.
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Longshot ether ETF endorsement contract delivers triple-digit returns for gamblers despite disputes over its resolution.
Taking a strong pro-crypto stance may have strengthened Donald Trump’s lead over incumbent President Joe Biden — at least if you follow the prediction markets.
Trump did just that last week promised to commute the sentence from Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht – a figure dear to many in the crypto community – and promised to make the US a leader in the digital assets industry. It’s a decidedly more concerned position than the Biden administration has taken.
Over the same period, Biden shares “yes” on PredictIt, an election betting platform popular among retailers that handles dollar transactions, fell from 46 cents to 44 cents. Each share pays out $1 if Biden is re-elected, and nothing if he loses. In fact, the price of 44 cents means the market sees a 44% chance that he will be re-elected.
Cryptocurrency-based Polymarket, which technically bans US residents from using its service, has shown a similar shift in opportunity.
Trump has increased by two percentage points on the platform for seven days, putting his chances at 56%, while Biden is two percentage points lower, at 37%.
The polls show that the gap between the two candidates is not that dramatic, nor has there been such a dramatic shift in the past week. According to the polls, Trump’s lead in the polls has increased only 80 basis points to 1.7% FiveThirtyEight averages. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they can be a more reliable tool for sentiment and prediction because gamblers, unlike people answering questions on the phone, play a role in the game.
Markets have also shown interest in North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as a possible running mate for Trump.
Burgum has been a recent speaker at Trump rallies and the subject of a Wall Street Journal profile true Republican insiders describe him as a “rich man with rich friends, which goes a long way with Trump.”
At PolymarktBurgum shares are up three percentage points and are currently trading at 18%, or 18 cents, while you are on PredictItthey are down slightly and are trading at 15 cents.
On both platforms, Burgum trails Tim Scott, who maintains a 23% lead on PredictIt and 27% on Polymarket, well ahead of establishment Republicans like Marco Rubio, with 10% on Polymarket, or Nikki Haley, with 4%.
Ether ETF bets are paying off big time
A mysterious dispute has arisen at Polymarket over the resolution of the contract over whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would bless ether ETFs. Bettors disagree on whether “approval” means just the 19b-4 forms or also the S-1 filings.
Rather unexpectedly, the SEC requested updated 19b-4 filings last week of potential issuers of Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Days later, these documents – critical documents in the approval process – were got the green light from the SEC, stunning old analysts. It was thought that the SEC’s uncertain vision about ether’s status as a certainty would slow things down.
But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it’s not over until it’s over.
Although the SEC has approved 19b-4 forms for the ETFs, it still must approve S-1 filings before trading can begin, said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. told CoinDesk.
“ETFs are not considered ‘approved’ until both the relevant registration form (such as S-1, N-1A or N-2) and the 19b-4 filing are signed by the SEC,” said Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, posted on X (formerly Twitter).
Despite these bureaucratic technicalities, the Polymarket contract, which received more than $13 million in bets, still decided “yes,” meaning the contract’s “oracle” or referee decided the case had been settled.
And that has led to a lot of money being made.
One user reaches the handle Papierlissbuying at 7 cents at the bottom of the market turned just over $300 into $4,358, for a return of 1,329%.
Meanwhile, the largest holder of “Yes” shares in the contract, don’t cheat on meachieved a 61% return, bringing his or her stake from just over $10,000 to a value of $16,902 when the contract was closed.
