The race for president has shifted toward Donald Trump after the first 2024 presidential election debateTrump now holds a 3-point lead over President Biden in all swing states, and a 2-point lead nationally.
Motivation is an important factor here, not just persuasion: Democrats are less likely than Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now.
Perhaps fitting for a race with two well-known candidates and a highly partisan electorate, more than 90% of both Biden and Trump supporters say they would never consider the other candidate, as was the case before the debate, which helps explain why the race has been relatively stable for months. Consider that Biden had gained some ground in June, after Trump convicted of crimes in New York, but that didn’t change the race dramatically either.
That said, today’s preference battle does mean that Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College.
Meanwhile, half of Joe Biden’s 2020 voters think he shouldn’t run this year. And if they do, they’re less likely to vote in 2024. They’re also more likely to choose someone else, Trump or a third-party candidate.
Donald Trump, in turn, notes that most Republicans feel empowered after the debate and that it has helped them more likely to vote. And independents remain in a tight race, with Trump now narrowly ahead of them.
Nationally, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely vote in 2024. Moreover, Republicans currently hold a similar turnout advantage in all swing states, underscoring Trump’s lead among likely voters there.
When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national polling sample, Mr. Trump’s national lead over Mr. Biden widens to four points. Mr. Kennedy draws about the same amount of both candidates, but Mr. Biden concedes slightly more to Stein and West, lowering his overall percentage.
For many voters, the age of both candidates is a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. When people see an equivalence there, Mr. Biden benefits: He leads Trump among those who say both.
The problem for Mr. Biden is that he is far behind those for whom only his age is a factor.
Immediately after the debate, CBS News polls showed a growing number of voters who believe that Mr. Biden does not have the cognitive health for the job and that he should not run. A solid seven in 10 still say he should not run. (It’s down three points from right after the debate, perhaps because the Biden campaign resisted the idea, but it remains the dominant view among voters and among a solid four in 10 Democrats.)
Mr. Biden has not beaten Trump on a number of personal qualities: Trump leads Mr. Biden in being seen as competent, tough and focused. The president is still seen as compassionate.
CBS News considers the battleground states most likely to decide the election in the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide, interviewed between June 28 and July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as previous voting. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battlegrounds are AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
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