Shortly after two overheated Ohio Republicans went chest-to-chest on the debate stage in 2022, Donald Trump watched a video of the viral clip and raised an eyebrow.
But it was the controlled response of a third candidate on stage that night, J.D. Vance, that helped win over the former president and secure a race-changing Trump endorsement for Vance in the Ohio Senate primary.
Trump is once again thinking about debate appearances as he considers who to choose as the Republican vice presidential nominee, according to three people who spoke with the former president.
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As he weighs the pros and cons of the candidates, Trump has sought advice on who could best help raise money and who would be the most disciplined campaigner. A third factor, the three people say, is who will do best in the debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, a veteran politician and former prosecutor.
Measuring candidates based on debate experience appears to give Vance at least a nominal advantage. Vance is now a U.S. senator and a leading contender to become Trump’s running mate, and his debating skills have been praised by the former president.
But like most of his statistics, there is a lot for Trump to take into account.
Debates have long been of great importance to Trump, who has made it clear both publicly and privately that without them he might not have won the White House in 2016. Even eight years later, Trump has waxed nostalgic about his 2016 appearances at least a dozen times since September during rallies and interviews.
When asked last week about preparations for his June 27 debate against President Joe Biden, Trump responded with a walk down memory lane.
“Debates are interesting because I had never debated before and in 2016 I debated a lot,” Trump said on Fox News. “It’s been good for me – it’s been work – I think I’ve won every debate.”
A Trump campaign spokesman declined to comment on the factors going into his decision-making, saying only Trump knows who he will choose as his running mate.
Trump’s emphasis on debate performance underlines the central role that stagecraft plays in his decision.
Foreign policy positions, cultural ideology and even political calculations about which candidate could help the campaign win a battleground state have all thus far taken a back seat to Trump’s focus on who will make him capable and will defend effectively in front of the camera.
Other politicians and political strategists generally do not view debates as decisively as Trump does. But there is broad agreement that the skills and personality traits that make someone a strong debater – such as acumen and high charisma – often translate into other valuable ways on the campaign trail, such as ease of connecting with donors or the ability to receive consistent applause from gathering crowds.
“The opposite is also true,” says Kellyanne Conway, a former Trump White House adviser who helped prepare Trump for debates in 2016 and 2020. “If you’re not good at debates, you’re probably not great on TV and should It’s difficult to help voters understand the reason for your candidacy.
For some potential running mates, previous debate experiences could hurt their chances.
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina struggled in the Republican primaries this year, delivering a mediocre performance that was also noticed by Trump behind the scenes.
Ben Carson, a retired surgeon, was involved in one of the most awkward debate moments of the 2016 Republican presidential primary when he stopped and waited just offstage after being announced instead of walking to his lectern.
The pros and cons for others are less clear.
Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty has risen in Trump’s consideration, but he declined to debate his campaign opponents in the 2020 election.
Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota earned Trump’s respect in part by not criticizing the former president during the presidential primaries and instead focusing on energy and the national economy.
Burgum was also largely overlooked by moderators, often because he was reluctant to attack fellow Republicans. Lately, he has shown more aggressiveness with sharp criticism of Biden.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had perhaps his worst public moment on a debate stage in 2016 — standing just feet away from Trump — when he appeared to malfunction amid criticism that he was too robotic.
During a heated exchange with Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor portrayed Rubio as a pre-programmed deliverer of well-polished applause lines. The Florida senator responded by repeating almost word for word the same sentence from a moment earlier.
“There it is – the 25-second memorized speech,” Christie interrupted as the crowd booed Rubio. The exchange sank Rubio’s popularity, relegating him to fifth place in a crucial New Hampshire primary three days later and changing the dynamics of the Republican race.
But now Rubio has become a close adviser to Trump and a more experienced politician. Thanks to a strong debate performance in 2022, he won a third term in the Senate. More recently, he has relished the role as one of Biden’s fiercest critics on television.
Vance’s first foray into politics was his 2022 Senate campaign, when he made some comments during the debate that Democrats would most likely resurrect if he were elected by Trump.
During a primary debate, he said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia “did nothing wrong” by appearing at a white nationalist conference with an outspoken white supremacist. In a general election debate, he supported a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, a measure that even Trump — responsible for the Supreme Court majority that overturned federal abortion rights — was unwilling to support.
Still, Vance’s performance during the Ohio primaries caught Trump’s attention, including one of the most watched exchanges of the 2022 midterm elections.
When two of his main opponents appeared ready to fight, Vance watched wide-eyed. He laughed and grabbed his microphone before thinking about it and setting it down next to his lap.
But he quickly seemed frustrated as the confrontation unfolded before him.
He leaned back in his chair. He briefly inspected the back of his tie. He stood and urged the instigator, Josh Mandel, a former state treasurer, to sit back down. “Damn, this is ridiculous,” Vance was heard saying.
The moderator restored order and asked the next question to Vance, who instead warned Mandel, a fellow Marine, about behavior unbecoming of a soldier.
“Think about what we just saw,” Vance told the crowd. “This guy wants to be a United States Senator, he’s here: ‘Stop me, stop me, I have two tours in the Marine Corps.’ What a joke. Answer the question; stop playing.”
Vance won a poll of debate attendees, just as he did after two other Republican primaries. A headline about those straw polls from Breitbart News reached Trump’s desk.
Three weeks later, Trump endorsed Vance, saying in a statement that “JD is most likely to take out the weak but dangerous Democratic opponent.”
“JD,” Trump added, “will destroy him in the debates.”
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